Forecast: Hurricane Season Just Getting Warmed Up

This year’s Atlantic hurricane season got off to an active start, with six named storms to date, and may have a busy second half, according to the updated hurricane season outlook issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. The updated outlook still indicates a 50% chance of a near-normal season, but increases the chance of an above-normal season to 35% and decreases the chance of a below-normal season to only 15% from the initial outlook issued in May.

Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the season (June 1 to November 30) NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook projects a total (which includes the activity-to-date of tropical storms Alberto, Beryl, Debby, Florence, and hurricanes Chris and Ernesto) of:

12 to 17 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
5 to 8 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
2 to 3 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

The numbers are higher from the initial outlook in May, which called for 9 to 15 named storms, 4 to 8 hurricanes and 1 to 3 major hurricanes. Based on a 30-year average, a normal Atlantic hurricane season produces 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
“We are increasing the likelihood of an above-normal season because storm-conducive wind patterns and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures are now in place in the Atlantic,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center.

However, NOAA seasonal climate forecasters also announced that El Niño will likely develop in August or September. “El Niño is a competing factor, because it strengthens the vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, which suppresses storm development. However, we don’t expect El Niño’s influence until later in the season,” Bell said.

NOAA revises, ramps up its Atlantic storm season outlook.