2013-2014 Florida Citrus Crop Outlook

This is the time of year when the industry begins to ask the question: What is the outlook for next year? Here we will discuss the prospects for the upcoming season and reflect on the past season.

From The Ground Up

The big news of the 2012-2013 season is the major revisions that were made in the round orange crop forecast declining from an initial estimate of 154 million boxes in October to a final estimate of 133.4 million boxes that was released in July. It is safe to say this is the biggest change in the crop estimate that has taken place in the absence of a weather event such as a freeze or hurricanes.

The main culprit behind the smaller crop was much higher fruit drop. Even though USDA incorporates fruit drop into their forecast, the fruit drop realized this season was far above any level observed in the past. Many attribute the high level of fruit drop to HLB.

Southern Exposure

The other big news of the 2012-2013 season are events in Brazil. The USDA forecasted a crop of 390 million boxes for São Paulo, the main citrus producing state in Brazil and where most of the citrus processing takes place. This tally followed a near record crop of 420 million boxes in 2011-2012. In order to induce processors to handle the large 2011-2012 crop, the government of Brazil initiated a program known as Consecitrus in which processors agreed to pay a minimum price in exchange for financing of juice inventories to be held into the 2012-2013 season. When another large crop materialized in 2012-2013, this program backfired. Consequently, a large number of boxes were not harvested. Estimates are that 30 to 40 million boxes of fruit dropped to the ground. Juice inventories remain at very high level entering the 2013-2014 season. The USDA 2013-2014 crop forecast for São Paulo is 290 million boxes, which should help ease the oversupply situation there.

These factors would generally be considered to be a negative for Florida, but in the face of high juice availability in 2012-2013, Brazilian juice processors chose to maintain relatively high juice prices in Europe. We have seen increased imports to North America that have served to offset lower Florida production. Therefore, one could characterize the behavior of Brazilian processors toward Florida as neutral. In the 2012-2013 season, we saw rising delivered-in prices as the Florida crop estimate was reduced with a season average price of about $1.70 per pound solid.

The big question entering the 2013-2014 season centers on the issue of fruit yields. Bearing tree numbers will be down again, although not by a large amount. The low level of new plantings in recent years is insufficient to replace trees lost to normal attrition and HLB. If the high drop episode of 2012-2013 repeats in 2013-2014, then we could well see a crop of 130 million boxes and even higher delivered-in prices.

Author note: This article was written before the Steger and Dreyfus estimates were released. Therefore, I was not able to incorporate those numbers into my outlook.

Topics: , ,

Leave a Reply

Citrus Stories

Labor
CitrusBorder Crisis Not Helping Farmers
August 19, 2014
As thousands cross into the U.S. seeking refuge, calls for ag labor reform are lost in the uproar. Read More
Farm Management
CitrusU.S. Sugar Buying South Florida Sugar Cane And Vegetable Farm
August 15, 2014
Purported deal worth $100 million to purchase farmland and assets of Knight Management Inc. Read More
Farm Management
CitrusFlorida’s Future Farming Leaders Dig Up Knowledge In The Golden State
August 15, 2014
Class 3 of FFVA's Emerging Leader Development Program learn a lot from road trip to California's Salinas Valley. Read More
Irrigation
CitrusWater Bond Will Appear On California Ballot
August 14, 2014
Voters will decide if thirsty state will spend $7.5 billion, including $2.7 billion for storage. Read More
Insect & Disease Update
Insect & Disease UpdateIs There Light At The End Of The Tunnel For Florida Citrus?
August 14, 2014
Time is of the essence in the race to beat greening. Read More
Farm Management
CitrusU.S. Fall Weather Outlook Foresees Wild Ride
August 14, 2014
From continued drought in the West, to a possible early Polar Vortex visit in the East, forecasters are predicting an active autumn. Read More
Marketing
CitrusMiffed By Marketing? You’re Not Alone [Opinion]
August 13, 2014
Properly promoting product involves engaging your target audience to meet their needs. But based on the campaigns dominating airtime, many are missing the mark. Read More

The Latest

Labor
CitrusBorder Crisis Not Helping Farmers
August 19, 2014
As thousands cross into the U.S. seeking refuge, calls for ag labor reform are lost in the uproar. Read More
Farm Management
CitrusU.S. Sugar Buying South Florida Sugar Cane And Vegetabl…
August 15, 2014
Purported deal worth $100 million to purchase farmland and assets of Knight Management Inc. Read More
Farm Management
CitrusFlorida’s Future Farming Leaders Dig Up Knowledge…
August 15, 2014
Class 3 of FFVA's Emerging Leader Development Program learn a lot from road trip to California's Salinas Valley. Read More
Irrigation
CitrusWater Bond Will Appear On California Ballot
August 14, 2014
Voters will decide if thirsty state will spend $7.5 billion, including $2.7 billion for storage. Read More
Farm Management
CitrusU.S. Fall Weather Outlook Foresees Wild Ride
August 14, 2014
From continued drought in the West, to a possible early Polar Vortex visit in the East, forecasters are predicting an active autumn. Read More
Marketing
CitrusMiffed By Marketing? You’re Not Alone [Opinion]
August 13, 2014
Properly promoting product involves engaging your target audience to meet their needs. But based on the campaigns dominating airtime, many are missing the mark. Read More
Farm Management
CitrusUpdate On The Farm Bill Implementation
August 11, 2014
A six-month progress report states disaster relief, risk management tools, innovative conservation partnerships, and the research foundation are all moving forward. Read More
Equipment
CitrusJohn Deere Announces Certified Pre-Owned Equipment Prog…
August 6, 2014
Deere dealers to offer certified used machines that meet stringent quality inspections and requirements.   Read More
Farm Management
CitrusFarming Production Costs And Farmland Values Increase
August 4, 2014
Midwest sees spike in production costs’ Northern Plains land values increased by 16.3% Read More
Marketing
CitrusGrowingProduce.com Relaunches With Responsive Design Fo…
August 4, 2014
New look offers customized experience for users depending on their device – phones, tablets, and desktop computers. Read More
Farm Management
CitrusFlorida Farmers Awarded For Innovation
July 28, 2014
UF/IFAS and Florida A&M hail industry leaders who excel in making their farming systems more profitable and sustainable. Read More
Crop Protection
CitrusThe Exponential Rise Of Biopesticides
July 28, 2014
The first sustainable commercial success stories in the biopesticide market were seen in the 1980s and 1990s. Since then, the market has grown exponentially, and is projected to exceed $3 billion by 2016. Read More
Crop Protection
Citrus9 Resources For All Of Your Biopesticide Questions
July 25, 2014
As the use of biopesticides continues to increase at a staggering rate, more and more resources are being made available to the public to help increase awareness of the sector. Read More
Crop Protection
Apples & PearsAn Awakening To The Value Of Biopesticides [Opinion]
July 25, 2014
With the entry of major suppliers into the biopesticide arena, whether or not biopesticides work is no longer the question. Now, people want to understand how they work. Read More
Crop Protection
Apples & PearsPGRs: The Overlooked Piece Of The Biopesticides Puzzle
July 25, 2014
Yield and quality can be as important to growers as crop protection. Read More
Citrus
CitrusFlorida Citrus Poised To Tell ‘Amazing’ Sto…
July 25, 2014
Flexibility, creativity, and swagger to be hallmarks of refreshed public relations plan. Read More
Production
CitrusEPA’s Water Rule In Over Its Head [Opinion]
July 24, 2014
Florida Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam says the state's farming sector and overall economy are in danger of drowning in red tape. Read More
Citrus
CitrusFlorida Grapefruit Grower Goes All In To Save Groves
July 22, 2014
As HLB runs rampant, everything is on the table for Scott Lambeth when it comes to disease mitigation. Read More