2013-2014 Florida Citrus Crop Outlook

This is the time of year when the industry begins to ask the question: What is the outlook for next year? Here we will discuss the prospects for the upcoming season and reflect on the past season.

From The Ground Up

The big news of the 2012-2013 season is the major revisions that were made in the round orange crop forecast declining from an initial estimate of 154 million boxes in October to a final estimate of 133.4 million boxes that was released in July. It is safe to say this is the biggest change in the crop estimate that has taken place in the absence of a weather event such as a freeze or hurricanes.

The main culprit behind the smaller crop was much higher fruit drop. Even though USDA incorporates fruit drop into their forecast, the fruit drop realized this season was far above any level observed in the past. Many attribute the high level of fruit drop to HLB.

Southern Exposure

The other big news of the 2012-2013 season are events in Brazil. The USDA forecasted a crop of 390 million boxes for São Paulo, the main citrus producing state in Brazil and where most of the citrus processing takes place. This tally followed a near record crop of 420 million boxes in 2011-2012. In order to induce processors to handle the large 2011-2012 crop, the government of Brazil initiated a program known as Consecitrus in which processors agreed to pay a minimum price in exchange for financing of juice inventories to be held into the 2012-2013 season. When another large crop materialized in 2012-2013, this program backfired. Consequently, a large number of boxes were not harvested. Estimates are that 30 to 40 million boxes of fruit dropped to the ground. Juice inventories remain at very high level entering the 2013-2014 season. The USDA 2013-2014 crop forecast for São Paulo is 290 million boxes, which should help ease the oversupply situation there.

These factors would generally be considered to be a negative for Florida, but in the face of high juice availability in 2012-2013, Brazilian juice processors chose to maintain relatively high juice prices in Europe. We have seen increased imports to North America that have served to offset lower Florida production. Therefore, one could characterize the behavior of Brazilian processors toward Florida as neutral. In the 2012-2013 season, we saw rising delivered-in prices as the Florida crop estimate was reduced with a season average price of about $1.70 per pound solid.

The big question entering the 2013-2014 season centers on the issue of fruit yields. Bearing tree numbers will be down again, although not by a large amount. The low level of new plantings in recent years is insufficient to replace trees lost to normal attrition and HLB. If the high drop episode of 2012-2013 repeats in 2013-2014, then we could well see a crop of 130 million boxes and even higher delivered-in prices.

Author note: This article was written before the Steger and Dreyfus estimates were released. Therefore, I was not able to incorporate those numbers into my outlook.

Topics: , ,

Leave a Reply

Citrus Stories
Photo credit: USDA
Citrus
December 1, 2016
Bio Huma Netics App Now Released For Android Smart Phones
App includes foliar application calculators and ability to save application data. Read More
CBS This Morning citrus story interview
Citrus
December 1, 2016
Telling The Story Of Florida Citrus More Important Now Than Ever
HLB forces an emphasis on grassroots efforts to paint a positive picture. Read More
Citrus Postbloom Fruit Drop field day hosted by BASF in Florida
Insect & Disease Update
November 30, 2016
Florida’s Top Citrus Growers Sound Off On Critical Matters
Fighting pyllids, better weather, and new varieties will hopefully bring improved yields. Read More
California Citrus Mutual and the Citrus Pest and Disease Prevention Program have spearheaded an effort to educate field crews about best practices to prevent the movement of plant material between harvest sites. (Photo Credit: David Eddy)
Citrus
November 29, 2016
Saving California Citrus Means Thinking Outside The “Carton” [Opinion]
Saving the California citrus industry from the incurable disease Huanglongbing will take a creative multi-pronged effort. Read More
sprayer nozzles
Citrus
November 29, 2016
Review Shows Low Risk To Aquatic Invertebrates From Neonicotinoids
Peer-reviewed evaluation of more than 100 studies finds uses of imidacloprid are unlikely to harm aquatic invertebrate communities, or the birds and fish that rely on them. Read More
UF/IFAS variety display at 2016 Florida Citrus Show
Varieties & Rootstocks
November 29, 2016
Open Forum To Help Put More Florida Citrus On The Fast Track
Growers, nurseries, and industry stakeholders invited to review and discuss pros and cons of rapid release program. Read More
Cut sugarcane in South Florida
Citrus
November 23, 2016
Strength Of Sugar Fuels South Florida Economy [Opinion]
The Sunshine State's sugar industry employs more than 14,000 people and has an annual income of more than $800 million with a total direct and indirect economic impact of greater than $3 billion. Read More
The Latest
Citrus
December 5, 2016
South Florida Endures Driest November On…
Region has not experienced any significant rainfall since Hurricane Matthew. Read More
Citrus
December 2, 2016
Citrus Survey Shows Florida Growers Are …
Growers are betting unique crop protection tools will bridge the gap to bigger HLB solutions. Read More
Citrus
December 1, 2016
Bio Huma Netics App Now Released For And…
App includes foliar application calculators and ability to save application data. Read More
Citrus
December 1, 2016
Telling The Story Of Florida Citrus More…
HLB forces an emphasis on grassroots efforts to paint a positive picture. Read More
Citrus
November 29, 2016
Saving California Citrus Means Thinking …
Saving the California citrus industry from the incurable disease Huanglongbing will take a creative multi-pronged effort. Read More
Citrus
November 29, 2016
Review Shows Low Risk To Aquatic Inverte…
Peer-reviewed evaluation of more than 100 studies finds uses of imidacloprid are unlikely to harm aquatic invertebrate communities, or the birds and fish that rely on them. Read More
Citrus
November 23, 2016
Strength Of Sugar Fuels South Florida Ec…
The Sunshine State's sugar industry employs more than 14,000 people and has an annual income of more than $800 million with a total direct and indirect economic impact of greater than $3 billion. Read More
Citrus
November 22, 2016
Arysta Partners With Beem Biologics To L…
Agreement to expand Arysta’s portfolio with new biocontrol releases. Read More
Citrus
November 21, 2016
Bacterial Imbalances Can Be Troublesome …
A recent study reports that bees given fresh pollen or fresh supplements fared better than bees given pollen or supplements that had first been aged for 21 days. Read More
Citrus
November 21, 2016
7 Sweet Releases In Florida Sugarcane
New cultivars focus on disease resistance and yield. Read More
Citrus
November 21, 2016
EPA Extends Comment Period For Malathion
Growers have the opportunity to comment on a draft of human health risk assessment. Read More
Citrus
November 21, 2016
Insight Welcome On Florida Agriculture&#…
Poorly thought-out government policies loom as a major threat that prevents Florida farmers and ranchers from feeding a hungry world. Read More
Citrus
November 20, 2016
Partnership Highlights Key Role Bees Pla…
Campaign focuses on role honeybees and beekeepers have pollinating the foods Americans eat. Read More
Citrus
November 19, 2016
USDA Gives $200 Million To Expand Ag Exp…
USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack has announced the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) is awarding $200 million to more than 70 Read More
Citrus
November 18, 2016
USDA Awards $9.4M For Pest Management
Projects aim to reduce pests, weeds, and diseases on farms through IPM. Read More
Citrus
November 17, 2016
How Soil Type Affects Land Values
Sand, loam, and muck all offer something different when setting property prices. Read More
Citrus
November 17, 2016
Florida Farming, Sugarcane Pioneer Passe…
George H. Wedgworth founded and led the Sugar Cane Growers Cooperative of Florida for 50 years. Read More
Citrus
November 15, 2016
Help On The Way To Florida Farmers Hurti…
USDA designates four counties as primary natural disaster areas; loans offered to those eligible. Read More