First Stab At Florida Citrus Production Predicts Dire Decline

Elizabeth Steger has released her estimate for the 2016-2017 Florida citrus season. The numbers from her consulting firm are considered the first unofficial prediction of how the next crop is shaping up. This year’s estimate illustrates the ravages that citrus greening continues to have on Florida’s signature crop.

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“We are adopting a crop forecast of 60.5 million boxes of oranges in the state of Florida,” Steger noted in a news release. “We are estimating a total of 29.5 million boxes of early/midseason varieties (including navels) and 31 million boxes of ‘Valencia’ oranges. This is 21 million boxes less than last season or 25.7% less.”

What do you think about Elizabeth Steger's prediction for Florida's 2016-2017 orange crop?

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She noted the decline in the crop was worsened by post bloom fruit drop, which is significant in many groves. That, combined with the continued spread of HLB, account for the dramatic decline estimated for the 2016-2017 season.

The USDA’s National Ag Statistics Service will release its official citrus estimate on Oct. 12.

For the 2015-2016 orange crop, Steger had forecasted a 93.5 million box production. USDA’s final tally put the crop at 81.5 million boxes.

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Avatar for Dana Hall Dana Hall says:

This is putting exposure on the ag lender as well as the farmer. We are working on some strategies for both. Let us know if you are having issues with your lender or as the lender.

Avatar for James A. Gravley IV James A. Gravley IV says:

I completely disagree with her professional opinion pertaining to our estimate. Large holdings as myself are doing well considering PFD and absolutely will see some decline in some blocks, mostly Valencia. We have a great fruit set this year and will improve our production numbers from last year and I’m sure we are not the only growers looking good this year. These estimates hurt the market in the long run , what family is going to pay 9.00 a gallon for orange juice?

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