Florida Citrus Poised For A Comeback

As we approach the middle of the 2014-2015 season, it is appropriate to both look back and forward. The 2014-2015 Florida orange crop forecast released in early October by USDA called for a round orange crop of 108 million boxes, up slightly from the 104 million boxes harvested in the 2013-2014 season. This number was greeted with both relief and skepticism by industry participants and alleged experts, such as the author of this article.

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Relief stemmed from the fact that after two seasons of steep declines in the Florida citrus crop, maybe — just maybe — growers were beginning to discover ways to live with HLB. At a grower meeting in Immokalee in early September, I argued that a 2014-2015 crop close in magnitude to the 2013-2014 would have a positive psychological impact on an industry that had been reeling.

The skepticism came from those who believe that tactics being employed to stem HLB were failing. The disease was too well-entrenched, and more radical solutions are needed. In early January, USDA posted its first revision to the 2014-2015 Florida orange crop forecast by lowering its forecast to 103 million boxes. It cited high fruit drop and small-sized fruit (symptoms associated with HLB) as the primary reasons for the revision. The latest crop forecast held serve.

Validating Value

The market for oranges used for processing has been quite stable. Even though the New York futures price has sagged, delivered-in prices for early-mid oranges are in the range of $1.90 per pound solid. As of this posting, the Valencia harvest had not begun, but the contracts for Valencia oranges were in the range of $2.30 to $2.40 per pound solid.

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U.S. orange juice consumption continues to decline, but some of this is driven by higher retail prices. The latest Nielsen reports indicate the average retail price of NFC was $7.49 per gallon.

No Time To Be Picky

My take on these observations is that growers are finding ways to combat HLB. These tactics include coordinated sprays to limit psyllid populations and better use of nutritionals. Declining demand remains a concern, but producing fruit is still the main problem confronting the Florida industry. I join State Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam in his recent call for additional research dollars.

HLB was not a relevant disease in Florida 10 years ago. Researchers have begun to develop momentum on a number of fronts to find short-term remedies (antibiotics, heat treatments) and long-term solutions (disease-resistant rootstocks). Even more radical ideas, such as production of citrus in pots under screen, are being evaluated. At this point, no idea should be considered “crazy.”

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