Latest Forecast Fair For Florida Citrus
February 10, 2012 The latest 2011-2012 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 146 million boxes, down just 1% from last month’s forecast, but 4% more than last season’s production. The total is comprised of 73 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, Navel, and Temple varieties) and 73 million boxes of Valencia oranges.
The forecast of non-Valencia production is continued at 73 million boxes. Final size and drop measurement were completed in December and the only new indicator is the Row Count Survey. The survey conducted on January 30-31, 2012 shows 80% of the rows have been harvested. Estimated utilization to Feb. 1, 2012, including non-certified use, is 59.9 million boxes. The Navel portion in the non-Valencia forecast is 2.6 million boxes, 4% of the total.
Valencia
The forecast of Valencia production is lowered by 1 million boxes to 73 million. Current fruit size is close to average and is expected to be about average at harvest. At current projections, it will take 207 pieces of fruit to fill a 90-pound equivalent box, up from 206 pieces last month. Projected droppage is unchanged at 16%, about one percentage point higher than average. Picking of Valencia oranges is just beginning with less than one million boxes certified as of Feb. 1, 2012.
Grapefruit
The forecast of all grapefruit production is reduced by 500,000 boxes to 18.7 million boxes. The white grapefruit forecast remains unchanged at 5.2 million boxes. As projected, white grapefruit final size is below average and final droppage is well above the average of the seasons used in the regression. The colored grapefruit forecast is reduced by 500 thousand boxes to 13.5 million boxes. Final fruit size for colored grapefruit ended lower than projected and droppage exceeded the maximum of the seasons used in the regressions.
Tangerines
The forecast of all tangerine production is reduced 100,000 boxes to 4.3 million boxes. The harvest of the early tangerines (Fallglo and Sunburst) is over for the season and the forecast remains at 2.4 million boxes. The reduction is in the later maturing Honey variety, now forecasted at 1.9 million boxes. The primary reasons for the decrease are smaller than projected average size and higher than projected droppage.
Tangelo
The forecast of tangelo production remains unchanged from the initial forecast of 1.1 million boxes. Certified utilization surpassed over 900,000 boxes according to the Citrus Administrative Committee’s report dated Jan. 29, 2012. The Row Count Survey shows more than three-quarters of the rows harvested.
FCOJ
The projection for frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) is raised to 1.63 gallons per box of 42° Brix concentrate. The yield projection for the non-Valencia oranges remains at 1.54 gallons per box while the projection for Valencia oranges is now 1.73 gallons per box.
Click here to see the entire USDA report.
Subscribe Today For
