Slight Squeeze Seen In Latest Florida Citrus Forecast

The 2011-2012 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 147 million boxes, down 2% from last month’s forecast, but 5% more than last season’s production. The total is comprised of 73 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, Navel, and Temple varieties) and 74 million boxes of Valencia oranges.

The forecast of non-Valencia production is reduced by 2 million boxes to 73 million boxes. Final fruit size is higher than average but below the previous projection, requiring an additional six pieces of fruit to fill a 90-pound box. Final droppage is higher than the maximum used in the regression. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia forecast, is 2.6 million boxes, four of the non-Valencia total. The Row Count survey, conducted Jan. 3-4, 2012 showed more than 80% of Navel rows and nearly 50% of the other non-Valencia rows harvested.

The forecast of Valencia production is lowered by 1 million boxes to 74 million boxes. Current fruit size is just above average and is projected to continue above average although below the previous projection. With the decreased size projection, an additional five pieces of fruit would be required to fill a 90-pound box. Current droppage continues just above average and is projected to be above average at harvest.

The forecast of all grapefruit production is reduced by 200,000 boxes to 19.2 million boxes. The reduction is in the white grapefruit, now forecasted at 5.2 million boxes. The colored grapefruit forecast remains unchanged at 14 million boxes. White grapefruit current fruit size is below average and droppage continues to be above the maximum of seasons used in the regression.

Current fruit size of colored grapefruit is below average but the projected drop is slightly lowered.

The forecast of all tangerine production is reduced 100,000 boxes to 4.4 million boxes. The early tangerine forecast (Fallglo and Sunburst) remains at 2.4 million boxes. The harvest of Fallglo tangerines is complete and Sunburst tangerine weekly harvest has dropped below 100,000 boxes. The reduction is in the later maturing Honey variety now forecasted at 2.0 million boxes. The primary reasons for the decrease are the smaller than projected size and higher than projected droppage.

The forecast of tangelo production remains unchanged from the initial forecast of 1.1 million boxes. The Row Count survey showed nearly half of the rows harvested. Certified utilization has reached more tha 500,000 boxes according to the Citrus Administrative Committee’s report dated Jan. 1, 2012.

The projection for frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) is lowered to 1.56 gallons per box of 42° Brix concentrate. Last season’s final yield for all oranges was 1.586081 gallons per box, as reported by the Florida Department of Citrus. First yield projections for the components are 1.44 gallons per box for non-Valencia oranges and 1.70 for Valencia oranges.

 To see the entire report, click here.

Leave a Reply

Citrus Stories
Growers participate in a real-time industry survey session at the 2016 Florida Citrus Show
Citrus
December 6, 2016
Florida Citrus Community Tasked To Unify For Stronger Future
A group effort is necessary to forge ahead. Read More
sprayer applying bactericides to citrus trees
Insect & Disease Update
December 5, 2016
Best Practices For Bactericides Key To Vetting Citrus Solution
Approval finally cleared for antimicrobial applications, and now growers wait and hope to see positive results. Read More
Low-volume overhead irrigation system at Jones Potato Farm
Citrus
December 5, 2016
South Florida Endures Driest November On Record
Region has not experienced any significant rainfall since Hurricane Matthew. Read More
Grower Jonathan Brown of Bethel Farms inspects his citrus grove.
Citrus
December 2, 2016
Citrus Survey Shows Florida Growers Are Bully For Bactericides
Growers are betting unique crop protection tools will bridge the gap to bigger HLB solutions. Read More
Photo credit: USDA
Citrus
December 1, 2016
Bio Huma Netics App Now Released For Android Smart Phones
App includes foliar application calculators and ability to save application data. Read More
CBS This Morning citrus story interview
Citrus
December 1, 2016
Telling The Story Of Florida Citrus More Important Now Than Ever
HLB forces an emphasis on grassroots efforts to paint a positive picture. Read More
Citrus Postbloom Fruit Drop field day hosted by BASF in Florida
Insect & Disease Update
November 30, 2016
Florida’s Top Citrus Growers Sound Off On Critical Matters
Fighting pyllids, better weather, and new varieties will hopefully bring improved yields. Read More
The Latest
Citrus
December 9, 2016
Latest Florida Citrus Crop Forecast Runs…
Despite crop protection challenges, all-orange production projection from USDA remains unchanged. Read More
Citrus
December 8, 2016
A Look Inside Florida’s Newest Cannabis …
Given the official go-ahead to dispense alternative medicine, Knox Medical unveils its state-of-the-art lab. Read More
Citrus
December 6, 2016
Report: Florida Cannabis Business To App…
Lofty projections include a compound annual growth rate of 140%. Read More
Citrus
December 6, 2016
Florida Citrus Community Tasked To Unify…
A group effort is necessary to forge ahead. Read More
Citrus
December 5, 2016
South Florida Endures Driest November On…
Region has not experienced any significant rainfall since Hurricane Matthew. Read More
Citrus
December 2, 2016
Citrus Survey Shows Florida Growers Are …
Growers are betting unique crop protection tools will bridge the gap to bigger HLB solutions. Read More
Citrus
December 1, 2016
Bio Huma Netics App Now Released For And…
App includes foliar application calculators and ability to save application data. Read More
Citrus
December 1, 2016
Telling The Story Of Florida Citrus More…
HLB forces an emphasis on grassroots efforts to paint a positive picture. Read More
Citrus
November 29, 2016
Saving California Citrus Means Thinking …
Saving the California citrus industry from the incurable disease Huanglongbing will take a creative multi-pronged effort. Read More
Citrus
November 29, 2016
Review Shows Low Risk To Aquatic Inverte…
Peer-reviewed evaluation of more than 100 studies finds uses of imidacloprid are unlikely to harm aquatic invertebrate communities, or the birds and fish that rely on them. Read More
Citrus
November 23, 2016
Strength Of Sugar Fuels South Florida Ec…
The Sunshine State's sugar industry employs more than 14,000 people and has an annual income of more than $800 million with a total direct and indirect economic impact of greater than $3 billion. Read More
Citrus
November 22, 2016
Arysta Partners With Beem Biologics To L…
Agreement to expand Arysta’s portfolio with new biocontrol releases. Read More
Citrus
November 21, 2016
Bacterial Imbalances Can Be Troublesome …
A recent study reports that bees given fresh pollen or fresh supplements fared better than bees given pollen or supplements that had first been aged for 21 days. Read More
Citrus
November 21, 2016
7 Sweet Releases In Florida Sugarcane
New cultivars focus on disease resistance and yield. Read More
Citrus
November 21, 2016
EPA Extends Comment Period For Malathion
Growers have the opportunity to comment on a draft of human health risk assessment. Read More
Citrus
November 21, 2016
Insight Welcome On Florida Agriculture&#…
Poorly thought-out government policies loom as a major threat that prevents Florida farmers and ranchers from feeding a hungry world. Read More
Citrus
November 20, 2016
Partnership Highlights Key Role Bees Pla…
Campaign focuses on role honeybees and beekeepers have pollinating the foods Americans eat. Read More
Citrus
November 19, 2016
USDA Gives $200 Million To Expand Ag Exp…
USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack has announced the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) is awarding $200 million to more than 70 Read More