Monster Apple Crop Looms

The WAC hosted the first gathering since 2008 of its representatives who promote Washington apples in 30 of the 63 countries that import them. A dozen reps were in Yakima and Wenatchee in mid-October touring orchards and packing plants. (Photos provided by Judy Jacques/Washington Apple Commission)

The WAC hosted the first gathering since 2008 of its representatives who promote Washington apples in 30 of the 63 countries that import them. A dozen reps were in Yakima and Wenatchee in mid-October touring orchards and packing plants. (Photos provided by Judy Jacques/Washington Apple Commission)

One hundred and seventy million boxes/bushels of apples – could that possibly be true?

That’s how high the estimates are running for this year’s Washington apple crop. The nation’s leading apple-producing state, by far, is set to break the record for the largest commercial apple crop in its history. That’s even if the Washington Apple Commission’s official, conservative crop estimate — they are projecting 140 million bushels — comes true. The current record is 128 million bushels in 2012.

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In the past, a typical annual crop has been in the 110-112-million-box range, according to the WAC. In an ordinary year, 30-35% of the state crop is exported. With this year’s large crop, the WAC’s goal is to export 20-25% more than that.

To gear up for the challenge, in October the WAC hosted the first gathering since 2008 of its representatives who promote Washington apples in 30 of the 63 countries that import them. A dozen of these representatives visited Yakima and Wenatchee to tour orchards and packing plants and get briefings on the latest developments in the industry.

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Western Fruit Grower recently caught up with Todd Fryhover, the WAC’s president, to ask him about the 2014 crop.

WFG: Any doubt this year’s crop will be a record?
TF: No question. We had a crop of 128.5 million a couple years ago and many trees have been planted since. The varieties are new and really popular. You need to look at what makes up that 140 million.

WFG: I’ve heard that it will be trouble to get it all picked. Do you think some will be left on the trees?
TF: Yes, I do think there will be some left on the trees. Growers know they need to make choices based on the highest values. They will make two picks, for example, instead of three or four.

WFG: I’ve heard it can’t all be picked because of a lack of labor. True?
TF: How do you get people to come to Prescott? It’s tough to get labor to come here, and it’s skilled labor too. On the positive side, I’m not an expert, but I would tell you that newer higher-density orchards are more picker-friendly. Also, we have platforms. We can be more productive with the labor we have.

WFG: I’ve also heard it can’t all be picked because of a lack of infrastructure, i.e. a shortage of bins. True?
TF: The industry is fully aware they’ve been planting more trees. But I don’t think anyone thought we’d go from 128 to 140-plus this quickly. But we’re also turning bins, using them at least twice.

WFG: Is this the size of crop we can expect in the future?
TF: Yes, I think it is. Because of labor, there are many of these picker-friendly high-density orchards going in – and there are consumer preferences for new varieties. Not just here, but in New York, Pennsylvania, etc. They are going through the same thing. Those varieties that aren’t economically viable might be coming out.

WFG: How can we sell all those apples?
TF: First, what is saleable and what is not? If they are all 48s, it’s a different challenge than if they are all 88s. We need to increase consumption both domestically and internationally. We [the WAC] focus on international consumption, obviously. But we do use social media (which has no borders) to drive home the point about these new varieties. Domestic consumption is just 16-19 pounds [per capita]. But we saw an increase in 2012 for the first time in a long time.

WFG: What percentage of the Washington crop is sold domestically?
TF: Approximately 65%-70%; the export percentage must increase.

WFG: How can we increase domestic consumption?
TF: It’s the larger private entities, such as Chelan Fresh and Stemilt, that have developed domestic marketing programs. They have been taking over the domestic marketing that [WAC] was doing prior to 2003. USApple also plays a role.

Tulip Phanuroote, WAC representative from Thailand, checks out some large apples at an Auvil Fruit Company orchard in Vantage, WA. (Photos provided by Judy Jacques/Washington Apple Commission)

Tulip Phanuroote, WAC representative from Thailand, checks out some large apples at an Auvil Fruit Company orchard in Vantage, WA. (Photos provided by Judy Jacques/Washington Apple Commission)

WFG: How does bringing in all the international reps help sales?

TF: The last time they were here was 2008, when the crop was about 80 million. Since then, the technology in orchards has gone crazy. Also, the packing lines have been improved. Clearly, there is a huge need to have the Apple Commission support 100% of the exports when domestic consumption remains relatively stable. We need to show them where the industry is going in the future. We are a world-class apple industry – there’s no doubt about that.

WFG: How many international reps are there?
TF: There are 11 reps. We run 26 to 28 programs around the world. We will have everyone here.

WFG: I have heard from experts that not enough money is devoted to international marketing. How much is spent?
TF: The assessment is 3.5 cents per carton. A penny goes to USApple, which represents the entire industry. Approximately 0.5 cents goes to the Northwest Horticultural Council. They focus on pest, phytosanitary issues, etc. So, about 2 cents goes to promote the Washington apple industry. We are also a Market Access Program (MAP) participant. In the 2014 export budget, $5.5 million came from MAP. $2.5 million came from Washington growers, for a total of $8 million. Basically, $8 million is what we work with.

First, our most important market is in our back yard. We don’t know exactly what is spent domestically. But we’ve got the great product; we just need to pump up the home marketing. On exports, we’re not in control of all markets. Some countries we can’t ship to, others have high duties. Having that access is really the key.

Prior to 2003, we spent as high as 40 cents per carton. But the vast majority was spent domestically. They were ahead of the curve. Just having regional reps work with retailers to put certain varieties on ad at certain times. The industry was really on-target. What extremely intelligent people to be able to look ahead 20, 30 years.

Now we have 3.5 cents to work with. Somewhere in the middle (between 3.5 and 40 cents) is the answer.

WFG: Do you think growers would support an increase?
TF: If you can clearly define the need and estimate what your goals are, I think you would find that most growers would support it. To what level is really a good question. These are people who are price takers, AND risk-takers. They have to be conservative. I could see the number doubling (3.5 cents) easylt, but it would be difficult to get it back up to 40 cents per box.

WFG: What are the key export markets?
TF: The important thing to recognize is Canada and Mexico are our top markets. No question. But elsewhere, our new #1 target is India, where there is a huge, growing middle class. There is a 50% duty, so it’s tough, but there are a billion people. China too, obviously has a huge population and a growing middle class that spends a tremendous amount of money on food; a much higher percentage than the U.S. Those are the areas we have been focused on and will remain focused on.

WFG: If you could offer growers one word of advice, what would it be?
TF: Educate yourself, understand the dynamics of the market and try to be as involved as you can. It’s important for growers to understand when market dynamics change. And we’re in one of those periods where things are really changing. You can be proactive and not reactive.

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