Almond Crop Forecast Revised Downward

Almond Bloom

California’s 2013 almond production is forecast at 1.85 billion meat pounds, down 7.5% from May’s subjective forecast and 2% below last year’s crop. The forecast, released today by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, is based on 810,000 bearing acres. Production for the dominant Nonpareil variety is forecast at 650 million meat pounds, 4% below last year’s deliveries. The Nonpareil variety represents 35% of California’s total almond production.
 
After a very cold winter, the 2013 almond crop began bloom two weeks later than normal. Bloom was strong and fast, which shortened overlap and pollination time. High winds in early April knocked nuts and branches off trees, as well as knocking down some trees. Nonpareil drop was reportedly heavy.

Despite the late bloom, harvest is expected to start earlier than normal this year. Mite pressure has been high this year. Water has been a concern for growers in the San Joaquin Valley this year, as rainfall was very low after the first of the year and allotments have been reduced.
 
The average nut set per tree is 6,686, down 5% from 2012. The Nonpareil average nut set of 6,141 is down 7% from last year’s set. The average kernel weight for all varieties sampled was 1.36 grams, which is the lowest average kernel weight in 40 years. The Nonpareil average kernel weight was 1.48, the lowest average kernel weight for Nonpareils. A total of 98.9% of all nuts sized were sound.
 
To determine tree set, nuts are counted along a path within a randomly selected tree. Work begins at the trunk and progresses to the end of the terminal branch. Using a random number table, one branch is selected at each forking to continue the path. A branch’s probability of selection is directly proportional to its cross-sectional area. This methodology is used because of its statistical efficiency. The method also makes it possible to end up at any one of the tree’s numerous terminal branches.
 
Since the selected path has a probability of selection associated with it, this probability is used to expand nut counts arriving at an estimated set for the entire tree.
 
Along intermediate stages (i.e., the bearing surface between forkings), every fifth nut is picked. All nuts on the terminal branch are picked. These nuts are used to determine size and weight measurements.
 
The survey began May 22 and sampling was completed by June 14. There were 1,766 trees sampled for the 2013 survey in 883 orchards. Additional orchards were not sampled for one of the following reasons:
 1)  Orchard had been sprayed.
2)  Orchard had been recently irrigated and was wet.
3)  Orchard had been pulled.
4)  Grower would not grant permission or could not be contacted.
 
The Objective Measurement Survey is funded by the Almond Board of California.

Topics:

Leave a Reply

2 comments on “Almond Crop Forecast Revised Downward

  1. Where city did the survey take place in? We are in Stanislaus County and a article just came out that it is a good year for nuts.

Nuts Stories
Disease ControlBacterial Spot Can Make Almonds Unmarketable
March 24, 2015
Management strategies can help you mitigate losses from this nasty almond disease. Read More
CitrusFarm Bureau Says WOTUS Rule Would Ignore Exemptions
March 24, 2015
Common farming practices may be vulnerable to Clean Water Act enforcement under the rule. Read More
NutsIndustry Update: American Pistachio Growers 2015 Conference
March 23, 2015
Industry flying high as a billion-pound crop looms at the end of the decade. Read More
CitrusCalifornia Unveils $1 Billion Drought Package
March 23, 2015
Governor, legislative leaders, announce $1 billion emergency drought legislation. Read More
CitrusFeed A Bee Campaign Aims To Plant 50 Million Flowers
March 23, 2015
Bayer CropScience announces program to increase forage opportunities for critical pollinators. Read More
FruitsBe On High Alert For Leaffooted Bug
March 18, 2015
Now is the time to start scouting for leaffooted bug in almond orchards. Read More
NutsHoneybee Forage Program Helps Bees And Growers
March 10, 2015
Project Apis m. is targeted at improving bee health with the help of California almond growers. Read More
The Latest
Laboratory beakers
CitrusGrowing Demand For Magnesium Nitrate Spurs TradeMark Ni…
March 30, 2015
Via enhancements made to its manufacturing plant, Florida company is able to provide more of its product to various fertilizer distributors and retailers throughout the country. Read More
blue orchard bee
Integrated Pest ManagementBlue Orchard Bee Shows Promise As An Alternative Pollin…
March 30, 2015
The native bee Osmia lignaria could soon be a valuable piece of the pollinator mix, especially for smaller almond growers. Read More
NutsWhy You Should Use Low-Rate Applications Of Potassium
March 26, 2015
These rates provide growers a low-cost method comparable to conventional applications. Read More
Disease ControlBacterial Spot Can Make Almonds Unmarketable
March 24, 2015
Management strategies can help you mitigate losses from this nasty almond disease. Read More
CitrusFarm Bureau Says WOTUS Rule Would Ignore Exemptions
March 24, 2015
Common farming practices may be vulnerable to Clean Water Act enforcement under the rule. Read More
NutsIndustry Update: American Pistachio Growers 2015 Confer…
March 23, 2015
Industry flying high as a billion-pound crop looms at the end of the decade. Read More
CitrusCalifornia Unveils $1 Billion Drought Package
March 23, 2015
Governor, legislative leaders, announce $1 billion emergency drought legislation. Read More
CitrusFeed A Bee Campaign Aims To Plant 50 Million Flowers
March 23, 2015
Bayer CropScience announces program to increase forage opportunities for critical pollinators. Read More
FruitsBe On High Alert For Leaffooted Bug
March 18, 2015
Now is the time to start scouting for leaffooted bug in almond orchards. Read More
NutsHoneybee Forage Program Helps Bees And Growers
March 10, 2015
Project Apis m. is targeted at improving bee health with the help of California almond growers. Read More
FruitsNo Federal Water For California’s Central Valley Grower…
February 27, 2015
Skimpy snowpack leads Bureau of Reclamation to make unprecedented announcement that there will be a zero initial allocation for the second year in a row. Read More
FruitsMaximize Produce Profits By Focusing On Soil Health
February 27, 2015
Cover crops are just one of the ways you can help boost your trees’ and vines’ performance and your bottom line. Read More
FNV logo
CitrusPMA Announces Funding For Major Produce Marketing Progr…
February 26, 2015
The produce industry is getting into brand marketing in a big way. The Produce Marketing Association (PMA) has announced the launch of a new promotional campaign - FNV - designed to take a page from the marketing strategies of big-money consumer brands like Nike and Apple. Read More
CitrusFDA, Federal Partners Develop New Method For Attributin…
February 25, 2015
Data was analyzed from nearly 1,000 outbreaks to assess which categories of foods were most responsible for making people sick. Read More
CitrusBiocontrols 2015: Exhibition Sneak Preview
February 25, 2015
We take a look inside the exhibit hall at the Biocontrols 2015 Conference & Tradeshow. Read More
NutsA Better Way To Gauge Chilling Hours
February 24, 2015
Using a new system, the chill portions model, can improve growers’ accuracy. Read More
CitrusNew App Helps Identify Insects, Diseases, And Nutrient …
February 24, 2015
Spensa Technologies launches app that helps growers take control of pests and improve soil nutrients. Read More
Crop ProtectionFMC Launches Biological Fungicide With New Mode Of Acti…
February 18, 2015
The broad spectrum fungicide, Fracture, is labeled for prevention and control of powdery mildew, botrytis, and brown rot blossom blight. Read More