Almond Crop Forecast Revised Downward

Almond Bloom

California’s 2013 almond production is forecast at 1.85 billion meat pounds, down 7.5% from May’s subjective forecast and 2% below last year’s crop. The forecast, released today by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, is based on 810,000 bearing acres. Production for the dominant Nonpareil variety is forecast at 650 million meat pounds, 4% below last year’s deliveries. The Nonpareil variety represents 35% of California’s total almond production.
 
After a very cold winter, the 2013 almond crop began bloom two weeks later than normal. Bloom was strong and fast, which shortened overlap and pollination time. High winds in early April knocked nuts and branches off trees, as well as knocking down some trees. Nonpareil drop was reportedly heavy.

Despite the late bloom, harvest is expected to start earlier than normal this year. Mite pressure has been high this year. Water has been a concern for growers in the San Joaquin Valley this year, as rainfall was very low after the first of the year and allotments have been reduced.
 
The average nut set per tree is 6,686, down 5% from 2012. The Nonpareil average nut set of 6,141 is down 7% from last year’s set. The average kernel weight for all varieties sampled was 1.36 grams, which is the lowest average kernel weight in 40 years. The Nonpareil average kernel weight was 1.48, the lowest average kernel weight for Nonpareils. A total of 98.9% of all nuts sized were sound.
 
To determine tree set, nuts are counted along a path within a randomly selected tree. Work begins at the trunk and progresses to the end of the terminal branch. Using a random number table, one branch is selected at each forking to continue the path. A branch’s probability of selection is directly proportional to its cross-sectional area. This methodology is used because of its statistical efficiency. The method also makes it possible to end up at any one of the tree’s numerous terminal branches.
 
Since the selected path has a probability of selection associated with it, this probability is used to expand nut counts arriving at an estimated set for the entire tree.
 
Along intermediate stages (i.e., the bearing surface between forkings), every fifth nut is picked. All nuts on the terminal branch are picked. These nuts are used to determine size and weight measurements.
 
The survey began May 22 and sampling was completed by June 14. There were 1,766 trees sampled for the 2013 survey in 883 orchards. Additional orchards were not sampled for one of the following reasons:
 1)  Orchard had been sprayed.
2)  Orchard had been recently irrigated and was wet.
3)  Orchard had been pulled.
4)  Grower would not grant permission or could not be contacted.
 
The Objective Measurement Survey is funded by the Almond Board of California.

Topics:

Leave a Reply

2 comments on “Almond Crop Forecast Revised Downward

  1. Where city did the survey take place in? We are in Stanislaus County and a article just came out that it is a good year for nuts.

Nuts Stories
Managed bee hive boxes around a blueberry field
Nuts
May 25, 2017
Stolen Hives Recovered in Nearly $1M Heist
Man likely stole hives from across the state of California in the last three years. Read More
Nuts
May 16, 2017
Another Record California Almond Crop Forecast
Bearing acreage officially hits the million mark, though per-acre yields are off from 2016. Read More
Nuts
May 1, 2017
Startup Costs a Challenge to Pecan Growing
University of Georgia Cooperative Extension specialist says as pecan acres begin to increase, growers need to understand the return on investment is longer than other crops. Read More
Nuts
April 27, 2017
Keep an Eye Out for Phytophthora in Your Nut Orchard
After several years of drought conditions, increased water salinity, and a wet winter, your nut orchard may be more susceptible to root rot than you think. Read More
Citrus
April 26, 2017
Perdue Sworn in as Ag Secretary
USDA launches Twitter account to help promote the industry. Read More
GenNext Growers
April 22, 2017
Next Generation of Leaders Gets Yearlong Almond Immersion
Almond Leadership Program enters its ninth year with the 2017 class. Read More
Nuts
April 10, 2017
Study Shows No Harm in Wildflower Plantings Near Almond Orchards
While conventional wisdom may suggest having more than one forage opportunity may detract from bee activity, research shows planting wildflowers boosts bees interest. Read More
Crop Protection
March 31, 2017
New Product Offers 2-in-1 Insect and Disease Control for Specialty Crop Growers
Crossover Pro offers early protection from insects, powdery mildew, rust, and leaf blight. Read More
Nuts
March 30, 2017
Lichens Thrive in Your Orchard During a Wet Year
Above average rainfall has created the perfect environment for growth. Read More
Nuts
March 28, 2017
How to Determine Optimal Almond Tree Spacing
Determining the proper row spacing for an orchard should be based on more than production and equipment access, and growers should also ponder the number of trees per row. Read More
Irrigation
March 26, 2017
Tips to Maximize Water Efficiency in Your Almond Grove
Editor’s note: Spencer Cooper joined the Almond Board of California last fall as Senior Manager, Irrigation and Water Efficiency. Western Read More
honeybees
Citrus
March 25, 2017
New Videos Offer Tips on Planting Pollinator Habitats
A new video series on planting flowering habitats is designed to help growers support crop pollinators. Read More
Nuts
March 24, 2017
Foreboding Fungus Vexes Almond Growers
In parts of California, almond growers have recently become concerned about Ganoderma root and butt rot. To put this concern Read More
Nuts
March 15, 2017
Efforts to Thwart Nut Thefts Ramping up in California
Ordinance revisions to end cash sales, include a 10-day hold on payments. Read More
Crop Protection
March 10, 2017
Nematicide Now Available in California, Arizona
Velum One from Bayer also suppresses foliar diseases, increases yields. Read More
The Latest
Citrus
June 21, 2017
Storm Runoff May Recharge Aquifers and Y…
A new study hints that tapping into storm water during dry years does more than increase water table levels. Read More
Fruits
June 6, 2017
Survey: Bee Loss Drops Last Season
Bee Informed Partnership says preliminary analysis of results show second-lowest loss rate recorded in last seven years. Read More
Nuts
June 3, 2017
Have Flooded Orchards? Keep an Eye out f…
While the damage from waterlogging or Phytophthora may not be immediately known, there are some warning signs to be on the lookout for. Read More
Nuts
May 25, 2017
Stolen Hives Recovered in Nearly $1M Hei…
Man likely stole hives from across the state of California in the last three years. Read More
Nuts
May 16, 2017
Another Record California Almond Crop Fo…
Bearing acreage officially hits the million mark, though per-acre yields are off from 2016. Read More
Nuts
May 1, 2017
Startup Costs a Challenge to Pecan Growi…
University of Georgia Cooperative Extension specialist says as pecan acres begin to increase, growers need to understand the return on investment is longer than other crops. Read More
Nuts
April 27, 2017
Keep an Eye Out for Phytophthora in Your…
After several years of drought conditions, increased water salinity, and a wet winter, your nut orchard may be more susceptible to root rot than you think. Read More
Citrus
April 26, 2017
Perdue Sworn in as Ag Secretary
USDA launches Twitter account to help promote the industry. Read More
GenNext Growers
April 22, 2017
Next Generation of Leaders Gets Yearlong…
Almond Leadership Program enters its ninth year with the 2017 class. Read More
Nuts
April 10, 2017
Study Shows No Harm in Wildflower Planti…
While conventional wisdom may suggest having more than one forage opportunity may detract from bee activity, research shows planting wildflowers boosts bees interest. Read More
Crop Protection
March 31, 2017
New Product Offers 2-in-1 Insect and Dis…
Crossover Pro offers early protection from insects, powdery mildew, rust, and leaf blight. Read More
Nuts
March 30, 2017
Lichens Thrive in Your Orchard During a …
Above average rainfall has created the perfect environment for growth. Read More
Nuts
March 28, 2017
How to Determine Optimal Almond Tree Spa…
Determining the proper row spacing for an orchard should be based on more than production and equipment access, and growers should also ponder the number of trees per row. Read More
Irrigation
March 26, 2017
Tips to Maximize Water Efficiency in You…
Editor’s note: Spencer Cooper joined the Almond Board of California last fall as Senior Manager, Irrigation and Water Efficiency. Western Read More
Citrus
March 25, 2017
New Videos Offer Tips on Planting Pollin…
A new video series on planting flowering habitats is designed to help growers support crop pollinators. Read More
Nuts
March 24, 2017
Foreboding Fungus Vexes Almond Growers
In parts of California, almond growers have recently become concerned about Ganoderma root and butt rot. To put this concern Read More
Nuts
March 15, 2017
Efforts to Thwart Nut Thefts Ramping up …
Ordinance revisions to end cash sales, include a 10-day hold on payments. Read More
Crop Protection
March 10, 2017
Nematicide Now Available in California, …
Velum One from Bayer also suppresses foliar diseases, increases yields. Read More