Almond Crop Forecast Revised Downward

Almond Bloom

California’s 2013 almond production is forecast at 1.85 billion meat pounds, down 7.5% from May’s subjective forecast and 2% below last year’s crop. The forecast, released today by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, is based on 810,000 bearing acres. Production for the dominant Nonpareil variety is forecast at 650 million meat pounds, 4% below last year’s deliveries. The Nonpareil variety represents 35% of California’s total almond production.
 
After a very cold winter, the 2013 almond crop began bloom two weeks later than normal. Bloom was strong and fast, which shortened overlap and pollination time. High winds in early April knocked nuts and branches off trees, as well as knocking down some trees. Nonpareil drop was reportedly heavy.

Despite the late bloom, harvest is expected to start earlier than normal this year. Mite pressure has been high this year. Water has been a concern for growers in the San Joaquin Valley this year, as rainfall was very low after the first of the year and allotments have been reduced.
 
The average nut set per tree is 6,686, down 5% from 2012. The Nonpareil average nut set of 6,141 is down 7% from last year’s set. The average kernel weight for all varieties sampled was 1.36 grams, which is the lowest average kernel weight in 40 years. The Nonpareil average kernel weight was 1.48, the lowest average kernel weight for Nonpareils. A total of 98.9% of all nuts sized were sound.
 
To determine tree set, nuts are counted along a path within a randomly selected tree. Work begins at the trunk and progresses to the end of the terminal branch. Using a random number table, one branch is selected at each forking to continue the path. A branch’s probability of selection is directly proportional to its cross-sectional area. This methodology is used because of its statistical efficiency. The method also makes it possible to end up at any one of the tree’s numerous terminal branches.
 
Since the selected path has a probability of selection associated with it, this probability is used to expand nut counts arriving at an estimated set for the entire tree.
 
Along intermediate stages (i.e., the bearing surface between forkings), every fifth nut is picked. All nuts on the terminal branch are picked. These nuts are used to determine size and weight measurements.
 
The survey began May 22 and sampling was completed by June 14. There were 1,766 trees sampled for the 2013 survey in 883 orchards. Additional orchards were not sampled for one of the following reasons:
 1)  Orchard had been sprayed.
2)  Orchard had been recently irrigated and was wet.
3)  Orchard had been pulled.
4)  Grower would not grant permission or could not be contacted.
 
The Objective Measurement Survey is funded by the Almond Board of California.

Topics:

Leave a Reply

2 comments on “Almond Crop Forecast Revised Downward

  1. Where city did the survey take place in? We are in Stanislaus County and a article just came out that it is a good year for nuts.

Nuts Stories

CitrusBayer CropScience Launches New Award To Recognize Produce Industry Innovators
October 21, 2014
Award recognizes innovation that enhances the role of produce in creating better lives. Read More
CitrusReport: Major Food And Agriculture Employers Can’t Fill Vital Jobs
October 21, 2014
Current shortage of young farming professionals means ample employment opportunity for the next generation. Read More
NutsAlmond Growers To Promote Bee Health
October 16, 2014
Almond Board of California announces comprehensive Best Management Practices. Read More
NutsKeep In Mind Availability Of Soil Fumigants
October 15, 2014
Almond growers must be aware of restrictions pertaining to soil fumigants prior to replanting. Read More
CitrusScientists Uproot Common “Superweed” Myths
October 15, 2014
A new fact sheet is available that explores the truth behind two fallacies.   Read More
CitrusFarm Bureau Urges Senate To Ditch Proposed Water Rule
October 8, 2014
Farm Bureau says the time is now to have the proposed water rule withdrawn. Read More
NutsGeorgia Universities Evaluating New Crop Monitoring Technologies
October 7, 2014
They receive USDA grant to work with company to measure effectiveness of Internet-based devices in growing pecans. Read More

The Latest

CitrusEPA Launches Program To Reduce Pesticide Drift
October 22, 2014
The voluntary star-rating program aims to protect people, wildlife and the environment. Read More
CitrusAgriculture, Interior Departments Partner To Measure Co…
October 22, 2014
Goal is to provide science-based information for watershed wellness. Read More
CitrusIt’s Time For Young Farming Leaders To Engage [Op…
October 21, 2014
Florida Grower editor Frank Giles says there are capable and talented youths in the ag field ready to step up and take the reins. Read More
CitrusBayer CropScience Launches New Award To Recognize Produ…
October 21, 2014
Award recognizes innovation that enhances the role of produce in creating better lives. Read More
CitrusReport: Major Food And Agriculture Employers Can’t Fi…
October 21, 2014
Current shortage of young farming professionals means ample employment opportunity for the next generation. Read More
NutsAlmond Growers To Promote Bee Health
October 16, 2014
Almond Board of California announces comprehensive Best Management Practices. Read More
NutsKeep In Mind Availability Of Soil Fumigants
October 15, 2014
Almond growers must be aware of restrictions pertaining to soil fumigants prior to replanting. Read More
CitrusScientists Uproot Common “Superweed” Myths
October 15, 2014
A new fact sheet is available that explores the truth behind two fallacies.   Read More
CitrusFarm Bureau Urges Senate To Ditch Proposed Water Rule
October 8, 2014
Farm Bureau says the time is now to have the proposed water rule withdrawn. Read More
NutsGeorgia Universities Evaluating New Crop Monitoring Tec…
October 7, 2014
They receive USDA grant to work with company to measure effectiveness of Internet-based devices in growing pecans. Read More
Food SafetyCenter For Produce Safety To Fund 14 Projects
October 7, 2014
The objective of the new grant awards is to provide the industry with practical research that can be used at all levels of the supply chain. Read More
FruitsUSDA Expands Access To Credit To Help More Beginning A…
October 7, 2014
Changes increase eligibility and financing options. Read More
Citrus2014 Irrigation Show To Highlight Education
October 6, 2014
The conference, to be held in Phoenix, AZ, brings together all aspects of irrigation and water management: education, certification, networking, and innovative technologies. Read More
Farm ManagementSpecialty Crop Producers Score Nearly $118 Million In G…
October 2, 2014
Via 2014 Farm Bill, USDA seeks to bolster major driver in U.S. economy.   Read More
NutsNew Walnut Budding, Grafting, and Planting Video Releas…
October 1, 2014
Lake County nurseryman Alex Suchan, who has been grafting trees for two-thirds of a century, is the star. Read More
Crop ProtectionCalifornia To Ban Some Pesticides In San Joaquin Valley
September 24, 2014
Chemistries with high Volatile Organic Compounds are used on pistachios, almonds, walnuts, grapes, and citrus crops. Read More
NutsCalifornia Walnut Growers See Boost From Oversees
September 24, 2014
Consumers seeking health benefits from nuts also contributing to rising market. Read More
CitrusNational Farmers Union Submits Comments On Clean Water …
September 23, 2014
Organization urges other industry groups to submit constructive comments. Read More