Almond Crop Forecast Revised Downward

Almond Bloom

California’s 2013 almond production is forecast at 1.85 billion meat pounds, down 7.5% from May’s subjective forecast and 2% below last year’s crop. The forecast, released today by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, is based on 810,000 bearing acres. Production for the dominant Nonpareil variety is forecast at 650 million meat pounds, 4% below last year’s deliveries. The Nonpareil variety represents 35% of California’s total almond production.
 
After a very cold winter, the 2013 almond crop began bloom two weeks later than normal. Bloom was strong and fast, which shortened overlap and pollination time. High winds in early April knocked nuts and branches off trees, as well as knocking down some trees. Nonpareil drop was reportedly heavy.

Despite the late bloom, harvest is expected to start earlier than normal this year. Mite pressure has been high this year. Water has been a concern for growers in the San Joaquin Valley this year, as rainfall was very low after the first of the year and allotments have been reduced.
 
The average nut set per tree is 6,686, down 5% from 2012. The Nonpareil average nut set of 6,141 is down 7% from last year’s set. The average kernel weight for all varieties sampled was 1.36 grams, which is the lowest average kernel weight in 40 years. The Nonpareil average kernel weight was 1.48, the lowest average kernel weight for Nonpareils. A total of 98.9% of all nuts sized were sound.
 
To determine tree set, nuts are counted along a path within a randomly selected tree. Work begins at the trunk and progresses to the end of the terminal branch. Using a random number table, one branch is selected at each forking to continue the path. A branch’s probability of selection is directly proportional to its cross-sectional area. This methodology is used because of its statistical efficiency. The method also makes it possible to end up at any one of the tree’s numerous terminal branches.
 
Since the selected path has a probability of selection associated with it, this probability is used to expand nut counts arriving at an estimated set for the entire tree.
 
Along intermediate stages (i.e., the bearing surface between forkings), every fifth nut is picked. All nuts on the terminal branch are picked. These nuts are used to determine size and weight measurements.
 
The survey began May 22 and sampling was completed by June 14. There were 1,766 trees sampled for the 2013 survey in 883 orchards. Additional orchards were not sampled for one of the following reasons:
 1)  Orchard had been sprayed.
2)  Orchard had been recently irrigated and was wet.
3)  Orchard had been pulled.
4)  Grower would not grant permission or could not be contacted.
 
The Objective Measurement Survey is funded by the Almond Board of California.

Topics:

Leave a Reply

2 comments on “Almond Crop Forecast Revised Downward

  1. Where city did the survey take place in? We are in Stanislaus County and a article just came out that it is a good year for nuts.

Nuts Stories
University of California-Davis
CitrusWorld’s Best Agriculture Colleges Ranking Revealed
April 29, 2015
Annual report card distinguishes which schools are excelling by subject area. Read More
IrrigationAlmond Growers Scramble To Cope With California Drought
April 28, 2015
Growers of the state’s top nut crop have become a target for residents upset over new urban water restrictions ordered by the governor because of a near absence of snowpack. Read More
CitrusCalifornia Drought Forum Slated For May 5
April 27, 2015
Public comments by growers, ranchers, and other stakeholders are encouraged by state officials. Read More
drought sign water crisis
Apples & PearsDiversification: A Response To Drought [Opinion]
April 27, 2015
With Governor Jerry Brown’s announcement of mandatory use reductions, the general public in California is getting a wake-up call on Read More
FruitsOverturned Truck Dumps Millions Of Bees On Highway
April 22, 2015
The truck with 448 hives was headed to a farm in Washington. Read More
CitrusRecord Number Of Organic Producers In U.S.
April 21, 2015
USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Services says domestic production has increased by 250% across all markets since 2002. Read More
FertilizerVerdesian Life Sciences Introduces New Phosphite-Free Plant Nutrition
April 21, 2015
Product designed as alternative for nut and stone fruit growers with concerns about MRLs. Read More
The Latest
CitrusMediterranean Fruit Fly Found In JFK Airport
May 5, 2015
The Mediterranean fruit fly, one of the world’s most destructive pests, was recently intercepted by U.S. Customs and Border Protection Read More
CitrusHow You Can Survive The Mobilegeddon
May 4, 2015
The Mobilegeddon is upon us. No, this isn’t a time to prepare disaster bunkers, or buy canned food in bulk. Read More
IrrigationCutting Growers’ Water Hurts All Of Us Who Eat [O…
April 29, 2015
There are no silver bullets when it comes to producing food; you need to have a certain amount of H2O. Read More
University of California-Davis
CitrusWorld’s Best Agriculture Colleges Ranking Revealed
April 29, 2015
Annual report card distinguishes which schools are excelling by subject area. Read More
IrrigationAlmond Growers Scramble To Cope With California Drought
April 28, 2015
Growers of the state’s top nut crop have become a target for residents upset over new urban water restrictions ordered by the governor because of a near absence of snowpack. Read More
CitrusCalifornia Drought Forum Slated For May 5
April 27, 2015
Public comments by growers, ranchers, and other stakeholders are encouraged by state officials. Read More
drought sign water crisis
Apples & PearsDiversification: A Response To Drought [Opinion]
April 27, 2015
With Governor Jerry Brown’s announcement of mandatory use reductions, the general public in California is getting a wake-up call on Read More
FruitsOverturned Truck Dumps Millions Of Bees On Highway
April 22, 2015
The truck with 448 hives was headed to a farm in Washington. Read More
CitrusRecord Number Of Organic Producers In U.S.
April 21, 2015
USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Services says domestic production has increased by 250% across all markets since 2002. Read More
FertilizerVerdesian Life Sciences Introduces New Phosphite-Free P…
April 21, 2015
Product designed as alternative for nut and stone fruit growers with concerns about MRLs. Read More
Disease ControlNew Fungicide For Wide Range Of Fruits, Vegetables In C…
April 21, 2015
FMC officially enters biological marketplace with first sales of Fracture fungicide. Read More
NutsPart 2: Spring Weed Management Tips For Almonds: Reduce…
April 14, 2015
Follow these tips to help improve long-term efficacy of herbicides. Read More
NutsPart 2: Combating Navel Orangeworm: IPM Approaches to R…
April 14, 2015
Follow these IPM approaches to reduce unnecessary sprays and manage pyrethroid resistance. Read More
NutsPart 1: Spring Weed Management Tips For Almonds
April 8, 2015
Avoid common weed management mistakes to ensure optimum weed control in the orchard. Read More
NutsPart 1: Combating Navel Orangeworm: Pyrethroid Consider…
April 8, 2015
Proper use of pyrethroids is critical for maintaining the broad-spectrum pesticide’s efficacy. Read More
CitrusCalifornia Snowpack Is Virtually Gone
April 2, 2015
With the lowest water content since 1950, the governor orders first-ever mandatory water reductions in cities and towns, and growers face tighter regulations. Read More
CitrusMake Every Day Ag Day
March 31, 2015
Another National Ag Day came and went on March 18. Did you do anything to promote it this year? Even Read More
Laboratory beakers
CitrusGrowing Demand For Magnesium Nitrate Spurs TradeMark Ni…
March 30, 2015
Via enhancements made to its manufacturing plant, Florida company is able to provide more of its product to various fertilizer distributors and retailers throughout the country. Read More