Almond Crop Forecast Revised Downward

Almond Bloom

California’s 2013 almond production is forecast at 1.85 billion meat pounds, down 7.5% from May’s subjective forecast and 2% below last year’s crop. The forecast, released today by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, is based on 810,000 bearing acres. Production for the dominant Nonpareil variety is forecast at 650 million meat pounds, 4% below last year’s deliveries. The Nonpareil variety represents 35% of California’s total almond production.
 
After a very cold winter, the 2013 almond crop began bloom two weeks later than normal. Bloom was strong and fast, which shortened overlap and pollination time. High winds in early April knocked nuts and branches off trees, as well as knocking down some trees. Nonpareil drop was reportedly heavy.

Despite the late bloom, harvest is expected to start earlier than normal this year. Mite pressure has been high this year. Water has been a concern for growers in the San Joaquin Valley this year, as rainfall was very low after the first of the year and allotments have been reduced.
 
The average nut set per tree is 6,686, down 5% from 2012. The Nonpareil average nut set of 6,141 is down 7% from last year’s set. The average kernel weight for all varieties sampled was 1.36 grams, which is the lowest average kernel weight in 40 years. The Nonpareil average kernel weight was 1.48, the lowest average kernel weight for Nonpareils. A total of 98.9% of all nuts sized were sound.
 
To determine tree set, nuts are counted along a path within a randomly selected tree. Work begins at the trunk and progresses to the end of the terminal branch. Using a random number table, one branch is selected at each forking to continue the path. A branch’s probability of selection is directly proportional to its cross-sectional area. This methodology is used because of its statistical efficiency. The method also makes it possible to end up at any one of the tree’s numerous terminal branches.
 
Since the selected path has a probability of selection associated with it, this probability is used to expand nut counts arriving at an estimated set for the entire tree.
 
Along intermediate stages (i.e., the bearing surface between forkings), every fifth nut is picked. All nuts on the terminal branch are picked. These nuts are used to determine size and weight measurements.
 
The survey began May 22 and sampling was completed by June 14. There were 1,766 trees sampled for the 2013 survey in 883 orchards. Additional orchards were not sampled for one of the following reasons:
 1)  Orchard had been sprayed.
2)  Orchard had been recently irrigated and was wet.
3)  Orchard had been pulled.
4)  Grower would not grant permission or could not be contacted.
 
The Objective Measurement Survey is funded by the Almond Board of California.

Topics:

Leave a Reply

2 comments on “Almond Crop Forecast Revised Downward

  1. Where city did the survey take place in? We are in Stanislaus County and a article just came out that it is a good year for nuts.

Nuts Stories
CitrusFederal Judge Blocks Clean Water Rule
August 28, 2015
  According to RISE (Responsible Industry For A Sound Environment), a federal judge in North Dakota has blocked implementation of Read More
money
CitrusMonsanto Drops Current Bid For Syngenta Acquisition
August 27, 2015
Even with a revised proposal that sweetened the pot to $46.2 billion, financial expectations still fall flat. Read More
NutsAlmonds Contribute Little To Carbon Emissions
August 25, 2015
Compared to other nutrient-dense foods, the carbon footprint of almonds is small. Read More
NutsAlmond Board Continues Legacy Of Funding Important Research
August 25, 2015
A $2.5 million investment in third-party research aims to improve almond farming sustainability. Read More
Virginia Tech campus in Blacksburg
CitrusCounting Down The Top U.S. Colleges For Natural Resources And Conservation
August 25, 2015
STEM-fueled area of study presents wide field of opportunity for future grads. Read More
FruitsClimatologist: Do Not Count On El Niño To End California Drought
August 25, 2015
 In a California Department of Food and Agriculture blog post, California state climatologist, Michael Anderson, urged growers to be mindful Read More
CitrusMaps Show Impending Impact From WOTUS
August 19, 2015
Plots indicate expansion of EPA’s reach across Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Montana. Read More
The Latest
CitrusWhole-Farm Revenue Protection Insurance To Be Available…
August 31, 2015
USDA offers greater flexibility for beginning, organic and fruit and vegetable growers. Read More
drought management; irrigation; water management
CitrusClear Up Misconceptions About Water Use In Ag
August 31, 2015
Those in the industry need to to clear up misconceptions about water use in agriculture. Read More
NutsGrowers Claim Pistachio Trees Diseased – Nursery …
August 30, 2015
Whatever the cause, pistachio trees are suffering from Pistachio Bushy Top Syndrome, and tens of thousands of acres in California and Arizona will have to be replanted. Read More
CitrusFederal Judge Blocks Clean Water Rule
August 28, 2015
  According to RISE (Responsible Industry For A Sound Environment), a federal judge in North Dakota has blocked implementation of Read More
money
CitrusMonsanto Drops Current Bid For Syngenta Acquisition
August 27, 2015
Even with a revised proposal that sweetened the pot to $46.2 billion, financial expectations still fall flat. Read More
NutsAlmonds Contribute Little To Carbon Emissions
August 25, 2015
Compared to other nutrient-dense foods, the carbon footprint of almonds is small. Read More
NutsAlmond Board Continues Legacy Of Funding Important Rese…
August 25, 2015
A $2.5 million investment in third-party research aims to improve almond farming sustainability. Read More
Virginia Tech campus in Blacksburg
CitrusCounting Down The Top U.S. Colleges For Natural Resourc…
August 25, 2015
STEM-fueled area of study presents wide field of opportunity for future grads. Read More
FruitsClimatologist: Do Not Count On El Niño To End Californi…
August 25, 2015
 In a California Department of Food and Agriculture blog post, California state climatologist, Michael Anderson, urged growers to be mindful Read More
CitrusMaps Show Impending Impact From WOTUS
August 19, 2015
Plots indicate expansion of EPA’s reach across Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Montana. Read More
branches covered in ice
CitrusWicked Winter Coming This Way Says Latest Farmer’s Alma…
August 17, 2015
Super El Niño-influenced weather patterns align to paint a less-than-pretty portrait. Read More
woman smashing an alarm clock with a hammer
CitrusDon’t Become A Time Crunch Casualty
July 31, 2015
Finding the balance between work life and home life is easier said than done for GenNext Growers. Read More
Disease ControlNew Disease Control Tools For Fruit And Nut Growers
July 29, 2015
Apple scab is a big problem for growers in the Midwest and East. But, a new fungicide boasts efficacy against Read More
CitrusUSDA Expands Crop Insurance Options For Fruit And Nut G…
July 24, 2015
The USDA announced the expansion of crop insurance to provide additional options for fruit and nut producers. The Supplemental Coverage Read More
CitrusInternational Report Confirms 2014 As Earth’s Warmest Y…
July 21, 2015
Scientific compilation notes climate markers continue to show global warming trend. Read More
non-gmo label leafy greens
CitrusGMO Labeling Battle Moves To House Floor
July 21, 2015
The Safe and Accurate Food Labeling Act of 2015 was passed by the Agriculture Committee last week and will head Read More
CitrusEl Niño Could Be Strongest In 50 Years
July 14, 2015
In the latest AccuWeather report, Brett Anderson, senior meteorologist with AccuWeather says El Niño has strengthened over the past few Read More
EquipmentJohn Deere Gator Giveaway Winner Announced
July 13, 2015
Meister Media Worldwide (MMW) is proud to announce the winner of this year’s Gator Giveaway contest. The Gator Giveaway contest Read More