Winter Weather Outlook Takes Unexpected Turn

Storm Clouds

According to the updated Winter Climate Outlook issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, the appearance of an El Niño this winter now seems unlikely. The agency’s initial winter forecast included a high chance of an El Niño pattern being present, which means increased odds of unusually wet and cold winters across the southern tier of the U.S., while the Pacific Northwest tends to experience milder temperatures than usual.

The lack of an El Niño or a La Niña event heading into winter usually means less predictable U.S. winter climate conditions and is one reason why the areas for well-above- or well-below-average temperature or precipitation this winter in the updated outlook are smaller than what was issued back in October.

Still, much of the western and southern central U.S. could be in for a warmer-than-average winter this year, while the upper Midwest and Florida peninsula could experience colder-than-average temperatures. In terms of precipitation this winter, most of California and western Nevada could experience well-below-normal conditions while parts of the southeast could receive well-above-normal precipitation.

Red and blue areas in the map above show the percent chances that temperatures will be in the upper or lower third of average winter conditions observed in those regions during the period from 1981-2010, respectively.

The map above shows the percent chances that precipitation will be in the upper third of the observed range of winter precipitation from 1981-2010 (green) or in the lower third of the observed range (brown). No shading over an area means there are equal chances for any given temperature or precipitation conditions this winter.

This outlook is potentially bad news for many residents of the Great Plains, Midwestern and Southern Central regions of the United States, which have been in the grip of a prolonged and severe drought. However, there could be some drought relief in store for watersheds in Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina, where wetter-than-normal conditions are favored this winter.

Topics:

Leave a Reply

Featured Stories
Photo credit: Dan Cantliffe
Berries
August 29, 2016
New Source For High And Low Tunnel Berry Growers
TunnelBerries project offers resources for growers, Extension agents, and those interested in berry production under cover. Read More
gmo apple
Apples & Pears
August 29, 2016
Public Comments Now Accepted For ‘Arctic Fuji’ Apple
APHIS releases determination to extend deregulation to third release from Okanagan Specialty Fruits. Read More
potato field generic
Potatoes
August 29, 2016
U.S. Potato Exports Reach Second Highest Level On Record
Prospects for continued growth in exports look good but the strong dollar and increased competition will continue to moderate this growth. Read More
Workers picking in a Florida strawberry field
Food Safety
August 29, 2016
10 Takeaways From The Center For Produce Safety’s Research Symposium
A couple of the key points from the symposium include knowing the importance of sampling irrigation water sources correctly and knowing the difference between validation and verification. Read More
Wafler apple harvester
Apple Grower of the Year
August 27, 2016
Rock Steady U.S. Apple Crop Forecast
USApple predicts 2016 output will be just slightly higher than in 2015. Read More
UC Cooperative Extension Viticulture Advisor Lindsay Jordan installs a solar “Paso Panel.” (Photo Credit: Matthew Fidelibus)
Grapes
August 27, 2016
Managing Water In California Vineyards
National viticulture symposium provides insights into estimating vineyard irrigation requirements. Read More
A Concord model grape vineyard with a two-tier cordon system. (Photo credit: Tom Zabadel)
Grapes
August 26, 2016
Model Vineyard Looks To Maximize Concord Production
Watching Michigan ‘‘Concord’’ grape growers struggle with stagnant and sometimes declining prices, a team of researchers at Michigan State University Read More
Organic potato grower staring at his crops
Crop Protection
August 25, 2016
Better Biocontrol Options Becoming Available To Organic Growers
New bio-based solutions to effectively control weeds and pests are cropping up. Read More
Marty McKenna and Mark Wheeler grab a photo together at the Florida Citrus Industry Annual Conference
Citrus Achievement Award
August 25, 2016
Working Together For A Common Cause Key To Citrus Success
Cirus Achievement Award winner Marty McKenna says the industry is sustained by strength in numbers. Read More
New citrus grove in Florida
Citrus
August 24, 2016
Florida Citrus Granted New Incentive To Grow On
A state-backed $5.5 million grove renovation/re-establishment program is now available and accepting applications. Read More
The Latest
Berries
August 29, 2016
New Source For High And Low Tunnel Berry…
TunnelBerries project offers resources for growers, Extension agents, and those interested in berry production under cover. Read More
Apples & Pears
August 29, 2016
Public Comments Now Accepted For ‘Arctic…
APHIS releases determination to extend deregulation to third release from Okanagan Specialty Fruits. Read More
Potatoes
August 29, 2016
U.S. Potato Exports Reach Second Highest…
Prospects for continued growth in exports look good but the strong dollar and increased competition will continue to moderate this growth. Read More
Food Safety
August 29, 2016
10 Takeaways From The Center For Produce…
A couple of the key points from the symposium include knowing the importance of sampling irrigation water sources correctly and knowing the difference between validation and verification. Read More
Apple Grower of the Year
August 27, 2016
Rock Steady U.S. Apple Crop Forecast
USApple predicts 2016 output will be just slightly higher than in 2015. Read More
Grapes
August 27, 2016
Managing Water In California Vineyards
National viticulture symposium provides insights into estimating vineyard irrigation requirements. Read More
Grapes
August 26, 2016
Model Vineyard Looks To Maximize Concord…
Watching Michigan ‘‘Concord’’ grape growers struggle with stagnant and sometimes declining prices, a team of researchers at Michigan State University Read More
Crop Protection
August 25, 2016
Better Biocontrol Options Becoming Avail…
New bio-based solutions to effectively control weeds and pests are cropping up. Read More
Citrus Achievement Award
August 25, 2016
Working Together For A Common Cause Key …
Cirus Achievement Award winner Marty McKenna says the industry is sustained by strength in numbers. Read More
Citrus
August 24, 2016
Florida Citrus Granted New Incentive To …
A state-backed $5.5 million grove renovation/re-establishment program is now available and accepting applications. Read More
Citrus
August 24, 2016
Meet Florida’s 2016 Woman Of The Year In…
Dedication to fostering the state’s farming future defines the latest winner of longtime honor. Read More
Berries
August 24, 2016
Researchers Unravel Genetic Ancestry Of …
A genetic analysis conducted by New Hampshire Agricultural Experiment Station researchers aims to improve modern cultivation efforts of strawberry growers. Read More
Potatoes
August 24, 2016
Fifth-Year Doctoral Student Receives NPC…
The National Potato Council (NPC) has announced that Justin Clements, a fifth-year doctoral student in the Molecular and Environmental Toxicology Read More
Fruits
August 24, 2016
Don’t Underestimate The Value Of P…
Sure, you can see and talk with virtually anyone in the world through your smart phone, but you can’t shake their hand. Read More
Farm Management
August 24, 2016
Swaying Views On GMO Foods No Easy Task
Featured speaker for the upcoming FFVA Annual Convention says tides are slowly turning in how people digest the concept of genetic modification. Read More
Grapes
August 23, 2016
Deeper Irrigation Method Showing Promise…
A new subsurface irrigation system is showing promise for slashing water usage in vineyards. Many vineyards use drip lines that Read More
Disease Control
August 23, 2016
Florida Sweet Corn Has New Deadly Stalke…
Learn how to identify, the survival and spread, as well as management methods for this disease. Read More
Fruits
August 23, 2016
New Insecticides Geared To Give Growers …
Check out three unique chemistries from several of the industry's leading crop protection suppliers. Read More
[gravityform id="62" title="false" description="false"]