Drought Update For Fresh And Processed Tomatoes

Despite one of the most severe droughts on record, the outlook is positive for both fresh and processed tomatoes in California, as production numbers are projected to finish higher than in 2013.

According to Tom Turini, farm advisor at the University of California Cooperative Extension in Fresno County, increased market prices for processed tomatoes and dramatically decreased pressure from the beet leafhopper in the Central Valley are two of the primary reasons for the
projected strong finish in 2014.

Beet curly top severely damaged tomato crops in 2013, but did not appear in fields as strongly in 2014 due to a reduced germination of the weed that hosts the diseases vector, the beet leafhopper. Photo courtesy of Bob Gilberston.

Beet curly top severely damaged tomato crops in 2013, but did not appear in fields as strongly in 2014 due to a reduced germination of the weed that hosts the diseases vector, the beet leafhopper. Photo courtesy of Bob Gilberston.

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“The price of processing tomatoes this past year has been higher than it’s been in history. So we are seeing a great deal of tomatoes planted in this production area in spite of the drought,” Turini says. “The processors set their goals very high to create an incentive for growers to produce. The prices came in at $83 a ton, which is higher than it’s ever been.”

Turini predicts overall production will be higher than last year as a result of increased plantings, but the yield per unit will remain stable.

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The National Agricultural Statistics Service’s “Processing Tomato Report” for 2014, reiterates Turini’s predictions. According to the report, California’s tomato processors indicated they have, or will have, contracts for 13.5 million tons this year, which would be the largest crop on record if realized. Processors estimate that the contracted production for 2014 will come from 290,000 acres, producing an average yield of 46.55 tons per acre.

Absence Of Beet Curly Top
Going into 2014, growers came prepared to battle the drought and beet curly top virus: two formidable obstacles in 2013. Rains in December 2012 encouraged germination of the weeds that host the beet leafhopper — the vector of beet curly top virus — and the leafhopper reproduced in large amounts with ravaging effects on tomato crops.

However, the lack of substantial rain in 2013 reduced the germination of the host weed, presenting Central Valley growers with much less of a challenge than expected. (See related article on page 23.)

“[Beet curly top virus] never came in in large numbers. It’s at a level that’s not inflicting economic damage,” he explains.

Struggling With Salinity
According to Turini, one challenge tomato growers are facing as a result of the drought is increased salinity in their soils as they continue to rely on well water to irrigate their crops.

“Depending on the well, there are varying levels of salts. Right now, [the salt] is higher than optimal for production, and that’s what we’re irrigating with. As we irrigate more with this water, through evaporation and uptake by the plants, we’re leaving the salt behind and concentrating it, so our salinity levels in the soil are increasing,” Turini says.

As of now, growers are dealing with the increased levels by adjusting the pH of their water, which has proven effective. Turini warns, however, that this is not a sustainable approach, and in order to maintain production long term, growers in the area will eventually have to seek out a higher quality water source.

Central Valley Mix
In regard to fresh versus processed tomatoes, Turini says the bulk of the acreage in the Central Valley is for processing, but there is substantial acreage on the fresh market side, which requires a significantly different set of conditions, and comes with more risk.

“There’s more risk associated with fresh market as a commodity than processed. Fresh market tomatoes are less tolerant of defects and blemishes. Also, we’ve had some issues with stinkbug here, and there’s no tolerance for [tomatoes infested with stinkbug] in the fresh market, but there is in processed,” he states.

Moving Eastward
Turini says the Central Valley has felt the most pressure from the drought compared to other regions in the state, and for some growers, moving production to other areas where there is more water has been lucrative.

“We are seeing tomatoes in areas where historically we didn’t have them,” he explains. “The water table in western Fresno County where a lot of the tomatoes are grown is very low, and the quality varies, but tends to be salty. In some other areas within a 50-mile radius of the west side — mostly to the east — are water tables that are shallower, and they have lower levels of dissolved salts and boron. So some of the production has moved further east.”

As far as how much tomato production has moved, from what he’s seen, Turini estimates the numbers to be in the tens of thousands of acres, with a minimum of 10,000.

Turini does say, however, that the parcels of land east of Fresno County are typically smaller than those west of Fresno, and there is higher variability in the soil types, resulting in less efficiency for large-scale tomato production.

Market Outlook
Looking forward, Turini reaffirms his belief that production will be higher. “I think our overall production is going to be a lot higher because our acreage is higher, and we didn’t suffer from curly top the way we did last year.”

Despite his optimism for the 2014 season, he stresses that if the drought continues any longer than 2015, the effects will be devastating to tomato production.

“I would suspect that we would probably be able to produce tomatoes here for another year. If it continues longer than that, then there will be serious problems,” Turini says.

Even though production is predicted to be stable next year, the ongoing fight with salinity will prove to be even more stressful for growers in 2015. Furthermore, because growers are now pumping water at a rate that exceeds recharge, the water levels will be considerably lower next year, and subsidence (the gradual caving in or sinking of land) may also be a concern.

Currently, the production numbers in California are high when compared to national or international standards, and in some fields, growers are seeing numbers as high as 70 tons per acre.

“If there’s an effect from the drought, so far it’s an effect we’re living with,” Turini states. “However, I think everyone would acknowledge we can’t continue with this for very long. We’re going to need a delivery of higher quality water in order to leach the salts.”

Turini says the drought is a long-term problem. If the state sees a wet year soon and salinity is decreased, production would increase very rapidly, solidifying California’s position as the leading producer of tomatoes in the U.S.

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