Updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Gets Downgrade
August 5, 2013 
[Updated Aug. 8 for NOAA’s updated outlook figures]
Heading into the teeth of the Atlantic hurricane season, Colorado State University (CSU) climatologists Philip Klotzbach and William Gray have slightly reduced some of their figures from the duo’s initial storm season outlook released in April and the subsequent update in June.
While an above-average season in 2013 is still anticipated, the report cites lowering the forecast slightly due to anomalous cooling in the eastern subtropical and tropical Atlantic.
Similarly, NOAA reduced its outlook tallies from its initial forecast.
Klotzbach and Gray are still expecting an above-average probability of U.S. and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.
Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Forecast For 2013
| Issue Date-April 10 | Issue Date-June 3 | Observed Activity Thru July | Forecast Activity After July 31 | Total Seasonal Forecast | |
| Named Storms | 18 | 18 | 4 | 14 | 18 |
| Hurricanes | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 8 |
| Major Hurricanes | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
Post July 31 Probabilities For At Least One Major Hurricane (Categories 3-5) Landfall On Each Of the Following U.S. Coastal Areas
- Entire U.S. coastline – 64% (full-season average for last century is 52%)
- U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida – 40% (full-season average for last century is 31%)
- Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville – 40% (full-season average for last century is 30%)
Click here to see the complete updated forecast from CSU.
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