Bright Florida Citrus Crop Forecast Toned Down Just a Tad

Last month, the 2018-2019 Florida citrus season officially kicked off on a positive note thanks to a somewhat surprising crop forecast from USDA. Initial estimates were indicating a haul of 79 million boxes of oranges — a whopping 76% increase over last season’s Hurricane Irma-influenced final output of 44.95 million boxes. The latest citrus crop forecast from the government agency, however, shows a slight change with non-Valencia oranges down 2 million boxes, lowering the overall estimate to 77 million. Despite the subtraction, the harvest would still be a 71% improvement over last season.

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The November forecast breaks down as follows: 32 million boxes of early, mid-season, and Navel varieties, plus 45 million boxes of the Valencia variety.

The outlook for Florida grapefruit also dimmed just a tad, dropping to 6.40 million boxes — a 300,000 box hit from last month. The output – if it holds – would still be 65% more than last year’s final tally.

Growers and stakeholders are hopeful the industry is rebounding not only from last year’s storm, but also maybe even from the decade-plus scourge of citrus greening. There’s still plenty of wood to chop in that regard. During the 1997-1998 season, a record-setting 49.5 million boxes of Florida grapefruit were harvested. That same season was a banner one for oranges, too, at 244 million boxes.

Reacting to the latest forecast figures, Commissioner of Agriculture Adam Putnam stated in a news release: “We’ll continue to support the industry as it rebuilds after Hurricane Irma and continues to battle citrus greening.”

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USDA will continue to update its citrus crop forecast every month until July. The next report is scheduled to release on December 11.

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