Powerful Predictions for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
This satellite image shows Hurricane Idalia strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall on Florida’s Big Bend area in late August 2023. The major hurricane was the main headline-maker during an active storm season. How will the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be remembered?
Image courtesy of NASA
Even though the official start to the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season is still almost two months away, attention is turning toward the tropics. Colorado State University’s (CSU) Tropical Weather and Climate Research team led by Dr. Phil Klotzbach has just released its first 2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecast. Two words that sum up the outlook: “extremely active.”
According to Klotzbach and crew, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will produce 23 named storms; 11 of which will be hurricanes; and 5 of those developing into major hurricanes (categories 3-5). All of these figures represent well above-normal totals.
In addition, the CSU forecast includes the probability of major hurricanes making landfall:
- 62% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880–2020 is 43%).
- 34% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average from 1880–2020 is 21%).
- 42% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville (average from 1880-2020 is 27%).
- 66% for the Caribbean (average from 1880-2020 is 47%).
A major factor in the forecasted uptick in storm activity is the expected shift from El Niño (ENSO) climate pattern back to La Niña in time for peak season (August to October). Characteristics of El Niño normally quash tropical activity in the Atlantic basin with its elevated wind shear and cooler waters. La Niña, on the other hand, is known to produce conditions much more conducive for storm development and intensification.
Along with the climate phase shift, water temperature anomalies have been reported across the Atlantic. Some sea surface temperatures in early February reflected readings normally seen in July!
The eastern and central tropical and subtropical Atlantic are much warmer than normal, favoring Atlantic #hurricane activity. This anomalous warmth is the primary reason why CSU's seasonal hurricane forecast for 2024 is calling for such an active season. pic.twitter.com/3o1EBfHDut
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) April 4, 2024
A portion of CSU’s forecast summary reads: “When waters in the eastern and central tropical and subtropical Atlantic are much warmer than normal in the spring, it tends to force a weaker subtropical high and associated weaker winds blowing across the tropical Atlantic. These conditions will likely lead to a continuation of well above-average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic for the peak of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.”
Recently, AccuWeather also released its long-range forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Its outlook, too, is predicting a very active storm season. In what its experts say could be a “potentially explosive” Atlantic hurricane season, AccuWeather’s official forecast calls for 20 to 25 named storms; 8 to 12 of those developing into hurricanes; and 4 to 7 of those reaching major status.
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva is going all in on the forecast. “There is a 10% to 15% chance of 30 or more named storms this year. Surpassing 30 would break the record set in 2020,” he says.
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, despite enduring a strong El Niño phase, still finished as fourth most active season since recordkeeping. Major Hurricane Idalia was the standout in the storm lineup, re-emphasizing the time-old saying, “All it takes is one.”
Graphic courtesy of AccuWeather
Stay tuned for more 2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecast updates. NOAA is yet to release its extended range forecast. Colorado State will provide multiple updates, including one on June 11, July 9, and Aug. 6.
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