Vegetable Farm Value May Reach $26 Billion by 2020

The farm value of vegetables and melons is projected to grow by an average 1.7% annually, reaching an estimated $25.8 billion in 2020 from $21.8 billion in 2010, according to USDA’s Dec. 16 Vegetable and Melon Outlook Report. About 60% of the 2020 value is from fresh-market vegetables, excluding potatoes. The 1.7% average growth in total farm value of vegetables over the coming decade is based on 0.8% projected growth in production and 0.9% annual price gains.

In farm weight, vegetable exports are forecast to expand by 1.5% per year, while imports increase by 3.1% on average. More than 60% of imported vegetables are fresh-market crops.

As planted acreage for vegetables and melons climbs by 0.4% per year through 2020, corresponding production is boosted by an average 0.8% per year. This suggests that about half of the growth in production stems from higher yields, especially with respect to fresh-market vegetables.

Since the pace of vegetable imports is twice that of exports, domestic use (i.e., consumption) of vegetables is increasingly driven by imports. Although projected imports account for less than a quarter of the estimated domestic use of vegetables, the share has doubled since 2000.

Fresh-market vegetable production is expected to reach 66 billion pounds by 2020, 41 billion pounds for processing vegetables, and 36.7 billion pounds for potatoes.

To read the full USDA report, go to www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/VGS/2010/12Dec/VGS342.pdf

Source: USDA Economic Research Service report
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