The Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA) 2021 forecast for the state’s crop is just under 125 million standard 40-pound boxes of fresh apples. This would be a 2.3% increase from 2020’s 122 million box crop, but down 7.2% from the 2019 crop of 134.5 million boxes.
“The 2021 Washington state apple crop looks to be similar in size to last year’s crop. Growing seasons are never the same, and currently many WSTFA members are still evaluating the impact of this summer’s adverse and variable weather conditions,” WSTFA President Jon DeVaney says. “Members have made their best attempt to incorporate these factors, but with harvest just beginning and several months of unknown weather ahead, further reductions in the size of the forecasted crop are possible.”
DeVaney continues: “In spite of these challenges, our growers anticipate meeting strong consumer demand with an ample and high-quality harvest. This crop reflects the continued growth of new varieties to delight all consumer tastes combined with the high standards of quality that domestic and international consumers have come to expect.”
For the third straight year, ‘Gala’ will be the most numerous variety at 21%, ‘Red Delicious’ is projected at 16%, followed by ‘Honeycrisp’ and ‘Granny Smith’ at 14%, and ‘Fuji’ at 13% of total production. This year, ‘Cosmic Crisp’ is forecast to come in at 3% of the total crop, a 114% increase from the 2020-21 crop, and ‘Cripps Pink’ at 6%.
Organic apple production is forecast to be 12.3% of the total, or 15.36 million boxes. This is essentially unchanged from the 15.6 million boxes in the 2020 apple crop. Although it should be noted that typically not all organic production is ultimately packed and marketed as organic.
The forecast is based on a survey of WSTFA members, and represents a best estimate of the total volume of apples that will eventually be packed and sold on the fresh market (excluding product sent to processor). Apple harvest typically begins in August and continues into November, and as a result this forecast is still subject to several months of variable weather which can affect the final harvest total.