“The results were striking. As a society, we’ve weighted the dice toward megadrought. Data clearly point to a high risk in the Southwest and Great Plains, as we continue to add carbon dioxide into our atmosphere,” said Toby Ault, Cornell associate professor of earth and atmospheric sciences. “However, if we manage to get serious about lowering greenhouse gases within the next 10 years, we could face a lower risk.”
With a drier future and higher regional temperatures amplifying possible late-century droughts, the situation presents a major adaptation challenge for managing the region’s water needs, explained Ault, who along with lead author Benjamin Cook and Jason Smerdon, both of NASA, published their new study, “Unprecedented 21st Century Drought Risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains Drought Risk in Western North America.”
By examining tree rings and other physical clues, previous research had identified a period of time called Medieval Climate Anomaly – from the year 1100 to the year 1300 – when megadroughts were more common. By analyzing data from 17 state-of-the-art global climate models, the researchers learned that western North America’s future drought risk exceeded even the driest centuries of the Medieval Climate Anomaly.
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Source: Cornell University