Opinion: Predicting Industry’s Future Can Be Daunting

It’s always fascinating to look back at predictions made about future trends, to see how they panned out. As I sat down to write this column, realizing that it’s the first I’m writing in the new decade, I decided to take this same approach and turned to our December 2000 issue, when we asked our editorial team to offer their thoughts on what might happen in the coming years.

As it turns out, some of us were spot on. One person predicted that, “Whether they like it or not, more fruit growers will submit to third-party audits to verify that they’re following good ag practices.” Another said that, “A big leap in the use of the Internet will occur, not only for gathering information but also for purchasing supplies.” Still another thought that, “Domestic growers will struggle with competitive pricing and an influx of less expensive imports.”

That’s all well and good, but hindsight being 20/20, it’s easy to say, “I told you so.” What’s arguably even more interesting is to reflect on the things happening today that, perhaps 10 years ago, you would have never seen coming. Here’s a few examples that come to mind for me:

• When the announcements of the phaseout of organophosphates such as Guthion and Imidan first began making headlines, there was much outcry from the fruit industry. But today, honestly, it doesn’t seem like that big of a deal. Most growers have well-established integrated pest management programs in place, including a wide range of softer materials, mating disruption, and scouting programs. Much credit has to be given to those industry leaders (especially researchers at Washington State University) who pushed hard early for alternative pest control techniques. Their efforts have made it easier for the industry to adapt.

• Remember when the organic movement was a rapidly growing trend that was supposed to become almost mainstream? While organic produce still maintains a prominent niche, it’s been largely surpassed by the locally grown movement. Many of today’s consumers tend to place more value on knowing not just where their food comes from, but who is growing it.

• It didn’t take a genius to see that the Internet was going to become an important part of doing business. What we perhaps didn’t realize was the degree to which digital communication was going to expand. Think about these words and phrases: Facebook. Twitter. Blogging. Texting. Webinar. Podcast. Social media. E-newsletter. Ten years ago, almost none of them were around. Today, they are a big part of how many of you do business, whether it’s communication with your customers, your employees, or an untapped market you’re hoping to connect with.

• The introduction of new varieties is more structured than ever before. When a new apple variety is developed, there’s a strong possibility that it will go the managed, or club, route. While this certainly improves the chances of keeping cost and quality at a high level, it is not without controversy. Limited access means that some growers will simply not be able to benefit from a new variety. The next 10 years will indicate what happens to the growers who are not a part of this trend. Will it be a boon to the industry as a whole, or will it put some growers out of business?

• China’s emergence as a global apple provider was already taking shape 10 years ago. Today, they have become the worldwide production leader in many other crops, as well. And yet, there are still a lot of unknowns about the food coming out of China. There’s no doubt the country will remain a major producer, but the question is whether they’ll develop the food safety practices to make them a trustworthy source.

Crystal Ball Hazy

So what about 10 years from now? Here’s just a few questions I will throw out regarding the fruit industry in the year 2020.

• Will mechanization help reduce our reliance on a skilled migrant labor force? Will we ever come up with a reliable system for the harvesting of fresh fruit at a cost that all growers who need it can afford?

• What effect will food safety policies have on the industry? Will there be sensible standards that all growers can adopt based on the crops they grow? Will we see fewer outbreaks? Will the costs of implementing food safety standards drive some growers out of business? Will we be growing all fruits and vegetables under cover, trying to keep out all forms of wildlife?

• Will genetic modification become an accepted practice, or will it still have the stigma of science gone wrong?

Finally, in case you were wondering, I was the one who made the final prediction from the beginning of this article concerning competitive pricing. I had only recently started writing for American/Western Fruit Grower at the time, but like to think I was at least partially accurate. As for 10 years from now? I guess we’ll have to wait to find out.