Predicted El Niño Has Florida Strawberry Growers on High Alert

Climatologists are predicting a strong El Niño is on the way. The climate phase brings with it distinct patterns of weather extremes to different parts of the globe. Florida strawberry growers are already bracing for the possibility of increased moisture that could impact next season’s crop.

That, in turn, increases the chances of disease, including Botrytis, says Vinicius Cerbaro, a University of Florida post-doctoral researcher. Cerbaro recently presented new research at the Florida AgriTech conference in Plant City.

The newly published study is crucial to strawberry growers. Data from Cerbaro and his colleagues at UF/IFAS focuses on what’s called the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This climate shift reaches peak activity in December and January — right in the middle of the Florida strawberry season.

During El Niño, the warmer ocean phase, Florida experiences above-average rainfall and below-average temperatures, fostering increased humidity and creating prime conditions for escalating fungal diseases.

In the study, UF/IFAS researchers examined 74 years (1950-2024) of climate data about how ENSO affects the risk of Botrytis fruit rot in Florida strawberries.

Here are the main findings from the study:
• During El Niño years, Botrytis risk in Hillsborough, Polk, Manatee, and Hardee counties was above average about 70% of the time.
• In Hillsborough County, these conditions were associated with up to 50% more fungicide sprays by growers who use the Strawberry Advisory System (SAS). With SAS — developed by UF/IFAS researchers — growers don’t spray on a fixed calendar. Instead, the system tells them when weather conditions are favorable for disease, and each of those alerts can alert them it’s time to spray fungicide.
• La Niña years tend to reduce disease risk due to drier conditions, although an increase in temperatures favorable for disease can partially offset that reduction.

“The upcoming strawberry growing season could be challenging for Florida growers, not only due to a potential lack of sunshine slowing ripening cycles or too much rain, which can be bad for some varieties, but also in terms of disease pressure,” Cerbaro says.

On the other hand, there is hope. Findings from this study could potentially be used to provide advanced notifications to growers ahead of the season, Cerbaro adds. These alerts would give farmers an overview of expected conditions and could support them in optimizing their disease-management strategies.

For more, continue reading at blogs.ifas.ufl.edu.