10 Positive Developments Keeping Florida Citrus on the Grow

There’s more than one way to measure the health of an industry. USDA has its way: acres, boxes, production forecasts. And by those measures, Florida citrus growers received another bitter dose of reality Oct. 9. But there’s another way to take stock of Florida citrus — one that considers scientific breakthroughs, renewed investment, and the remarkable persistence of growers who refuse to throw in the towel. By that measure, the outlook is considerably sweeter.

USDA’s first forecast for 2026-2027 projects Florida orange production at 10 million boxes, down 23% from last season. Grapefruit production is expected to decline 4%, while tangerines and mandarins are forecast to fall 2%.

The picture is brighter elsewhere, with California orange production expected to increase and nationwide gains projected for grapefruit, lemons, and mandarins. Still, Florida’s citrus leaders aren’t surrendering to the numbers.

“The tenacity and grit of Florida citrus growers cannot be overstated,” says Shannon Shepp, Executive Director of the Florida Department of Citrus. “The faith of a farmer is nothing to mess around with.”

Shepp also emphasizes the industry’s research partnerships and potential for future investment.

Florida Citrus Mutual CEO Matt Joyner likewise points to healthier trees, improved fruit quality, and stronger per-acre performance, even while acknowledging the damage caused by last winter’s freezes.

Their optimism has substance. Consider 10 encouraging developments from the past year:

1. A new weapon against HLB. EPA approval of CarriCea T1, developed from University of Florida research, marks a significant milestone for HLB-resistant rootstock technology. More than 300,000 trees have reportedly been ordered.
2. Another biological breakthrough. EPA’s 2026 regulatory actions involving Silvec’s CTV-SoD2 technology advance an approach that uses a modified citrus tristeza virus to deliver protective proteins within trees.
3. Renewed planting. Despite declining acreage, growers continue investing in new trees. These plantings offer hope for rebuilding production as they reach maturity.
4. Trunk-injection progress. Growing experience with oxytetracycline treatments is helping growers understand their potential to improve tree health, fruit quality, and yields under HLB pressure.
5. Major state investment. Florida’s 2026-2027 budget commits nearly $196 million to citrus initiatives, including $160 million for the Citrus Research and Field Trial (CRAFT) Foundation, reinforcing efforts to develop and deploy recovery strategies.
6. Research delivering answers. UF/IFAS is analyzing harvest data from its 5,000-tree Millennium Block project, comparing rootstocks, planting systems, and management practices to help guide commercial decisions.
7. Better rootstocks and scions. Advances in breeding and selection, supported by programs such as CRAFT’s Emerging Varieties initiative, offer growers opportunities to improve disease tolerance and productivity.
8. Protected production. More than 2,000 acres of citrus were reportedly planted under protective screen in Florida in 2026, demonstrating growing interest in excluding the Asian citrus psyllid, particularly for fresh grapefruit.
9. Encouraging grove performance. Joyner reports healthier trees, better fruit quality, and improved per-acre production in some groves — signs that investments in tree health may be paying dividends.
10. More tools, more possibilities. From genetic advances and biological approaches to trunk injections and improved cultural practices, growers have an expanding toolbox against HLB. No single solution must carry the entire burden.

None of this erases Florida’s difficulties. Winter freezes have taken another toll. Nor do promising technologies guarantee an immediate recovery. Growers still face high costs, HLB pressure, and difficult investment decisions.

USDA will continue counting the boxes. And those numbers will remain important. But Florida citrus growers have something else worth counting these days: reasons to believe.