Florida Oranges Fare Well In Latest Citrus Forecast
December 9, 2011 
The latest 2011-2012 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 150 million boxes, up 2% from October and 7% more than last season’s production. The total is comprised of 75 million boxes each of the non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, Navel, and Temple varieties) and Valencia oranges. The Navel orange forecast is reduced to 2.5 million boxes, 3% of the non-Valencia total.
The forecast of non-Valencia production is raised by 1 million boxes to 75 million boxes. Current size and droppage are close to the maximums and projected to be near the maximums at harvest. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia forecast, is reduced by 200,000 boxes to 2.5 million boxes. Final Navel size is near average but final droppage has exceeded the projection and is the highest in any non-hurricane season since 1994-1995.
The forecast of Valencia production is raised by 2 million boxes to 75 million boxes. Current fruit size is larger than in the past seven seasons and is projected to continue above average. Current droppage continues above average and is projected to be above average at harvest.
The forecast of all grapefruit production is reduced by 700,000 boxes to 19.4 million boxes. The white grapefruit forecast is reduced by 200,000 boxes to 5.4 million boxes. The colored grapefruit forecast is reduced 500,000 boxes to 14 million boxes. White grapefruit current fruit size is below average and droppage is above the maximum. Colored grapefruit fruit size is tracking close to average and current drop is above the maximum. Droppage is projected to be above average at harvest for all varieties.
The forecast of all tangerine production is reduced 200,000 thousand boxes to 4.5 million boxes. The early tangerine forecast (Fallglo and Sunburst) is now 2.4 million boxes. The forecast of the later maturing Honey variety is reduced 100,000 thousand boxes to 2.1 million boxes. The decrease in early tangerines is based on Fallglo utilization and near record high droppage for the Sunburst variety, which offset the above average fruit size. Honey fruit size is about average while the droppage rate is near the maximum. Both are projected to continue this relationship until harvest.
The forecast of tangelo production remains unchanged from the initial forecast of 1.1 million boxes. Tangelo size and droppage measurements are above average and final for the season.
The projection for frozen concentrated orange juice remains 1.60 gallons per box of 42° Brix concentrate. Last season’s final yield for all oranges was 1.586081 gallons per box, as reported by the Florida Department of Citrus. Yield projections for the early midseason and late components will be published next month.
Source: USDA-NASS
Subscribe Today For
