Apple Industry Expects 4.1% Production Jump in 2023-2024
August 21, 2023 
USApple Director of Industry Analytics Chris Gerlach talks apple production estimates for 2023-2024 during USApple’s annual Outlook Conference in Chicago. (Photo: Thomas Skernivitz)
U.S. apple production will increase 4.1% in 2023-2024 compared to the previous season, according to estimates released Friday by the U.S. Apple Association. However, the group’s approximation of 256.3 million bushels for the final crop is down 1% compared to the five-year average.
“We’re trending down,” USApple Director of Industry Analytics Chris Gerlach said at his group’s annual Outlook Conference in Chicago. “The question is how we, as an industry, think about where we should be. Is 250 sort of our new standard? Should we be trying to get to 275, 300 as a nation?”
Among the top seven apple-producing states, California (13.3%), Pennsylvania (9.3%), and Washington (9.1%) are expected to post year-over-year increases. More indicative, two states — Michigan (29.7%) and Virginia (1.3%) — are slated to improve upon their five-year averages.
“Another big year out of Michigan,” Gerlach said. “Up nearly 30% (over five years) on flat acreage.”
The biggest year-over-year expected losses were tagged to New York (-13.2%), Oregon (-8.1%), Michigan (-1.2%), and Virginia (-1%). Over five years, faring worst were Oregon (-20.3%), New York (-12.8%), and California (-10.2%), followed by Pennsylvania (-5.2%), and Washington (-2%).
Tree fruit growers in New York and much of the Northeast experienced killer freeze events in February and May.
USApple’s final U.S. number is slightly higher than the comparative USDA figure — 250 million bushels – that was released a day earlier. USDA had originally arrived at 236 million, based on data from only the top seven apple-producing states; USApple, meanwhile, added 14 million bushels from the top remaining states. Those “other states” showed a 1% increase year-over-year and 3.9% decrease on the five-year average.
The top apple-producing states and their projected numbers of 42-pound bushels grown in 2023-2024, according to USApple, are:
- Washington (159.52 million)
- Michigan (32 million)
- New York (28 million)
- Other states (13.9 million)
- Pennsylvania (10.75 million)
- California (4.76 million)
- Virginia (4.35 million)
- Oregon (2.97 million)
USDA will release final production results next May.
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