2009 Apple Crop Forecast
September 9, 2009 It was a mostly optimistic mood when apple growers, packers, and marketers met in Chicago in August for the U.S. Apple Association’s Apple Crop Outlook and Marketing Conference. While prices remain a touchy subject, the quality of this year’s crop appears to be relatively strong across the country. Most areas seem to have had a sufficient amount of rainfall, while hail damage has been spotty.
USDA’s 2009 apple crop forecast, which was released Aug. 12, calls for 241 million bushels, which would be up 4% from both the 2008 crop and the five-year average crop. While the East and West are set to experience mild drops in crop size (with the nation’s major apple producer, Washington, unchanged), there will likely be a big jump in the Midwest thanks to a huge crop coming out of Michigan.
Looking at varieties, Red and Golden Delicious continue to decline in market share, while Gala and Fuji are on the rise. Meanwhile, exports increased 17% from 2007 to 2008 to a new record of 41 million bushels. In addition, the value of these exports also increased to a new record.
Regional Reports
The following is a brief summary of the 2009 apple crop broken down by region.
• East. Unlike last year, drought conditions were not much of a problem this year, and most areas have had adequate moisture. New York is expected to produce a large but manageable crop, with a fresh packout of at least 50%. Conditions are also strong in Pennsylvania, but further south into the Appalachian region, the crop will be down this year.
• Midwest. The windstorms that swept through Michigan in early August will only have a minimal effect on what is expected to be a very large crop for the state. Sizing looks to be promising this year, with good coloring, as well. Some scab issues could lead to slight reductions in fresh market packouts in certain areas, and harvest is expected to be about a week late. The forecast is similar for Ohio, but further west, cooler weather in Wisconsin and Minnesota could lead to some sizing concerns.
• West. There will be some carryover from the 2008 crop in Washington, but not a lot, which will be important for growers this season. With the fresh market crop estimated at 107 million bushels, there’s a chance some fruit will be left hanging on the tree if it’s not tops in size and quality. No weather issues this year should mean good quality, and this holds true further down the West Coast, as well.
Outside The U.S.
As is customary at USApple’s Outlook Conference, speakers from across the world offered additional insights into the crop forecast in their countries and regions.
• Europe. According to the World Apple and Pear Association, the crop for the European Union apple producing countries will be 10.8 million metric tons, which would be down 7% from 2008. Braeburn and Cripps Pink production continues to grow. Of note, organic production fell this past year, not due to a drop in acreage, but rather because more growers simply opted to sell the crop conventionally.
• China. The Chinese are expected to produce a crop of 26.2 million metric tons. Acreage plantings have slowed, but yields are increasing as more growers move to high-density orchards. About 72% of the Chinese crop is designated for the fresh market, and another 20% will go to the production of apple juice concentrate.
• Canada. The Canadian apple crop forecast calls for 21.8 million bushels, which would be up 6.5% from 2008 and up 7.9% from the five-year average. The crop was up significantly in British Columbia, but down a bit in Nova Scotia.
• Mexico. The Mexican apple crop is projected to reach 24.1 million boxes, which would be up 24% from 2008. Cool, rainy weather has helped produce a crop of moderate quality, and imports are rising. However, forces such as phytosanitaty concerns, the Mexican trucking ban, tighter border security, and a local drug war have led to lingering questions about how the Mexican apple market will be affected.
Looking Forward
Aside from the domestic and international crop forecasts, USApple’s Outlook Conference also provides an opportunity to hear about major trends in the industry. One of this year’s highlights was a panel discussion on “The Future Of The Washington Apple Industry.” The panel included some of Washington’s brightest minds in the industry: Reggie Collins of Chelan Fruit, Robert Kershaw of Domez/Superfresh Growers, West Mathison of Stemilt Growers, and Mark Zirkle of Rainier Fruit Co. After providing an overview of each of their operations, the panelists moved on to address issues such as managed varieties, labor supplies, increasing sales, what the state’s crop will look like five years from now, and any lessons they’ve learned from this year’s cherry oversupply. The bottom line: there’s optimism in most of these areas, although it will be important to adapt and keep up with advancements in orchard designs and picking technology.
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2009 U.S. Apple Crop Forecast |
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| State | 2008 Apple Crop | 2009 USDA Forecast (Vs. 2008) | 2009 USApple Forecast | Vs. 2008 | Vs. 5-year Average |
| New York | 29,762 | 30,238 (+2%) | 30,000 | +1% | +3% |
| Pennsylvania | 10,476 | 11,619 (+11%) | 10,750 | +3% | -1% |
| Virginia | 5,476 | 4,762 (-13%) | 4,762 | -13% | -18% |
| North Carolina | 3,929 | 2,738 (-30%) | 2,738 | -30% | -16% |
| West Virginia | 2,024 | 2,119 (+5%) | 2,119 | +5% | +5% |
| New Jersey | 798 | 1,048 (+31%) | 1,048 | +31% | +2% |
| Maryland | 869 | 802 (-8%) | 802 | -8% | -1% |
| Vermont | 1,024 | 964 (-6%) | 964 | -6% | +5% |
| Maine | 1,024 | 845 (-8%) | 845 | -8% | -1% |
| Massachusetts | 1,048 | 940 (-10%) | 976 | -7% | +13% |
| New Hampshire | 976 | 679 (-30%) | 750 | -23% | +4% |
| Connecticut | 464 | 429 (-8%) | 429 | -23% | -5% |
| Georgia | 286 | 0 (FD) | 0 | -100% | -100% |
| South Caronlina | 167 | 0 (FD) | 0 | -100% | -100% |
| Rhode Island | 57 | 48 (-16%) | 48 | -16% | -6% |
| Total East | 58,271 | 57,231 (-2%) | 56,531 | -4% | -2% |
| Michigan | 14,286 | 25,000 (+75%) | 26,000 | +82% | +46% |
| Ohio | 2,476 | 2,357 (-5%) | 2,800 | +13% | +30% |
| Wisconsin | 1,357 | 1,393 (+3%) | 1,500 | +11% | +15% |
| Indiana | 548 | 762 (+39%) | 762 | +39% | -16% |
| Illinois | 1,100 | 1,071 (-3%) | 950 | -14% | -5% |
| Missouri | 719 | 598 (-17%) | 550 | -24% | -28% |
| Minnesota | 645 | 631 (-2%) | 600 | -7% | +2% |
| Tennessee | 238 | 190 (-20%) | 190 | -20% | +1% |
| Kentucky | 183 | n/a | n/a | ||
| Iowa | 112 | 100 (-11%) | 100 | -11% | -2% |
| Total Midwest | 21,664 | 32,102 (+48%) | 33,452 | +54% | +34% |
| Washington | 138,095 | 138,095 (n/c) | 132,000 | -4% | -2% |
| California | 8,571 | 7,857 (-8%) | 7,500 | -13% | -11% |
| Oregon | 2,833 | 2,619 (-8%) | 2,619 | -8% | -23% |
| Idaho | 2,024 | 1,548 (-24%) | 1,548 | -24% | -1% |
| Utah | 286 | 429 (+50%) | 429 | +50% | -19% |
| Colorado | 429 | 381 (-11%) | 381 | -11% | -24% |
| Arizona | 429 | 524 (+22%) | 524 | +22% | -15% |
| Total West | 152,667 | 151,453 (-1%) | 145,001 | -5% | -4% |
| Total U.S. | 232,602 | 240,786 (+4%) | 234,684 | +1% | +1% |
| Measured in 000 42-pound units Source: USDA-National Agricultural Statistics Service, Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary, various years and Crop Production, Aug. 12, 2009 FD = Severe frost damage; n/a = not available; n/c = no statistical change |
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