South Florida Dry Season Forecast: Abnormally Normal
October 22, 2012 South Florida is forecast to experience one of the few dry seasons with near-average rainfall in the past 14 years, officials announced at a joint briefing by the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) and the National Weather Service (NWS). With water levels currently above average in key areas, the region will likely not see the drought conditions or the water supply challenges of previous years.
Only two South Florida dry seasons, 1998-1999 and 2003-2004, have actually been about average in the past 14 years, with two above average and 10 below average dry seasons.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center forecast calls for equal chances of slightly above or slightly below average rainfall for the first three months of the upcoming dry season.
But both NWS and SFWMD climatologists and meteorologists caution that the uncertainty associated with a weather pattern known as El Niño means this dry season forecast has a lower confidence than previous years.
Among the official forecast highlights for the 2012-13 South Florida dry season:
- Near normal precipitation is mostly likely during the first part of the dry season, from November to February
- A drier-than-normal trend may characterize March and April
- Average dry season precipitation: 12 to 15 inches in the interior/west to 15 to 21 inches in the east
- Long-term average winter temperature: 64°F to 66°F in the interior/west to 67°F to 69°F in the east
Wet Season Update
The new dry season forecast follows a 2012 wet season that has seen above average rainfall in nearly the entire 16-county District, from Orlando to the Florida Keys.
District-wide, an average of 41.73 inches of rain, or 6.65 inches above the average, fell between May 8 and Thursday, Oct. 18.
Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties, along with the Kissimmee region, experienced the largest rainfall totals, including the historic deluge from Tropical Storm Isaac. In Palm Beach County alone, nearly 15 inches of rain fell in a 72-hour period. In its flood control operations, the District moved an estimated 105 billion gallons of water away from residents in several counties.