Hurricane Milton Effect Seen in Latest Florida Citrus Crop Forecast
December 12, 2024 Florida citrus has absorbed blows from big hurricanes in recent years. Notorious storms like Irma (2017), Ian (2022), Nicole (2022), and now Milton this year have added salt to the wounds for growers trying to save Florida’s signature crop. The initial citrus crop estimate of the year released in early October (tabulated before Milton) already was paltry by past production standards. USDA’s latest crop forecast of the season has squeezed estimates to those not seen in nearly a century.
The official December citrus crop estimate from USDA puts Florida’s all-orange count at 12 million boxes. This is down 20% from October’s estimate. The all-grapefruit estimate didn’t fare much better. The updated total of 1.5 million boxes is down 14% from October’s forecast.
Last season, Florida’s all-orange production finished about 18 million boxes. Grapefruit finished at 1.79 million boxes for the 2023-2024 season. To compare, during the 1997-1998 season, 244 million boxes of oranges (a record high) were harvested in Florida. During the 1996-1997 season, 55.8 million boxes of grapefruit came to fruition.
This citrus grove was left shaken after Hurricane Milton. This scene was a familiar one for Polk, Hardee, and Highlands counties in Florida following the major storm.
Photo courtesy of Florida Citrus Mutual
Citrus Production Challenges
The reduction in citrus production has been a troubling trend for years due in large part to HLB. The stress put on trees from hurricanes exacerbates the situation.
In the immediate wake of Hurricane Milton, I reached out to industry contacts for their reactions. Florida Citrus Mutual CEO/Executive VP Matt Joyner put things in perspective: “These compounding challenges of citrus greening and hurricanes Irma, Ian, Nicole, and now Milton, the challenges are really stacking up. While Florida’s citrus growers are resilient, they will need support from state and federal partners to help rebuild their groves and this industry.”
2024 was an extra busy hurricane season for Florida with three landfalls (Debby, Helene, and Milton). Disaster recovery programs are in place for growers impacted by the storms. The deadline to register with FEMA and to apply for a physical disaster loan for hurricanes Helene and Milton has been extended to Jan. 7, 2025.
The next 2024-2025 citrus crop estimate from USDA is scheduled for Jan. 10, 2025.
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