Potential Record Lows Seen In the Latest Florida Orange Forecast
April 12, 2022 Forecasts — in general — aren’t an exact science. Many factors can change an outcome of whatever is being predicted. For the Florida citrus industry, it’s becoming harder to see that silver lining amid the clouds hanging over this season’s production cycle. The latest crop estimate from USDA isn’t helping matters much.
The April forecast shows a 7% decrease from last month’s report, putting the all-orange estimate now at 38.2 million boxes. If the number holds, it will be 28% less than last season’s total output. Roughly half of the remaining Valencia crop is to be harvested, according to USDA.
After-effects of a strong cold snap that hit the Sunshine State at the end of January are continuing to play out in groves and are contributing to the falling crop estimates, which were already were under pressure from HLB. The current pace has this season on par with marks set prior to World War II. Even the difficult season following Hurricane Irma (2017-2018) produced more than 49 million boxes of oranges.
During the 1997-1998 season, 244 million boxes of oranges (a record high) were harvested.
Grapefruit also got squeezed a little more by USDA forecasters for April. The crop estimate was trimmed another 300,000 boxes down to 3.6 million boxes. Last season’s total was 4.1 million boxes. This season’s grapefruit harvest is all but complete. During the 1996-1997 season, 55.8 million boxes of grapefruit came to fruition.
USDA’s next Florida citrus estimate is scheduled to release on May 12. The season will wrap up with the last report in July.
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