Farmers Almanacs Vs. Modern Science: Which Winter 2023-2024 Forecast Will Win Out?
October 5, 2023 Hey! What’s the winter 2023-2024 forecast looking like? Wanting to know what future weather will bring resonates with just about everybody. Mother Nature impacts us all in some shape or form on a daily basis. For farmers, staying ahead of the weather can make or break their livelihood. This is where extended seasonal forecasts come in.
Today’s technology allows for super-detailed outlooks on temperature, precipitation, among other data.
Conversely, long-running publications The Old Farmer’s Almanac and the Farmers’ Almanac have provided a rustic take on climatological forecasts for more than two centuries each. Despite the older-school approach, the Almanacs remain popular. In fact, the Farmers’ Almanac states many longtime followers maintain its forecasts are 80% to 85% accurate. That’s one helluva record. But, between today’s modern science and the proprietary methodologies used by the Almanacs, which would win in extended weather forecast accuracy?
Recently, Dr. Ray Schmitt, President & Co-founder of Salient, a software development company that specializes in forecasting, took on this provocative topic in a blog titled “The outlook for winter 2023-2024: Modern science vs. the Farmer’s Almanac.”
Schmitt writes: “The traditional release of the winter forecasts from dueling publications Farmers’ Almanac and The Old Farmer’s Almanac provides an irresistible opportunity to contrast those folksy prognostications with Salient’s innovative subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting technology.”
A ‘Winter Wonderland’ or Something Else
The influential climate pattern El Niño is shaping the winter 2023-2024 forecasts all around, including from both Almanacs. In fact, the winter 2023-2024 forecast theme for the Farmers’ Almanac is “The Brrr Is Back.” Its prediction is calling for lots of snow on the East Coast, unseasonably cold in the southern Plains into Texas, possible frosts in Florida, as well as an unusually wet and cold winter in the Pacific Northwest.
Here is how the Farmers’ Almanac is mapping out its extended winter 2023-2024 forecast.
Similarly, The Old Farmer’s Almanac forecast is sporting a festive forecast theme for winter 2023-2024, “Winter Wonderland!” The publication’s editors are predicting above-normal snowfall across much of the country, with the exception of the Pacific Northwest. In addition, normal to below-average temps are expected for most states, but does single out parts of the Northeast being milder than normal.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac Winter 2023-2024 forecast graphic.
So, what is Salient seeing? Quite a contrast, actually. It’s forecasting warmth in the north and west and a near-normal winter for much of the country over December–February. “That continues the warming trend we have seen in recent years for the northern tier of states,” Schmitt writes. “A warm fall and early winter across the north will mean that the Great Lakes will be slow to freeze over and will be able to supply lots of moisture for lake-effect snow. Buffalo can expect another round of very heavy early-season snow falls.”
Here, Salient displays its Dec. 2023-Feb. 2024 forecast as the probability of above normal temperatures (red), average temperatures (neutral), or below normal temperatures (blue).
Graphic courtesy of Salient
The Salient forecast indicates most of the Continental U.S. should trend toward near-normal precipitation, except for elevated chances of above-normal rain for the Southeast and most of the Atlantic coast from the Gulf to New England. The above-normal rainfall prediction is based on historic El Niño patterns. How strong the El Niño is at the time is still to be determined.
“That could make for a stormy winter and spring for the Southeast, especially if temperatures trend warm,” Schmitt writes.
Salient’s precipitation prediction map for winter 2023-2024 shows above-normal rainfall the Southeast extending up the Atlantic Seaboard.
Graphic courtesy of Salient
While land temperatures have been tending warm and setting records, so have sea temperatures. Record warm water temps were recorded this past summer, including a mind-blowing 101.1°F reading off the Florida Keys. The above-normal water temperatures in and around the Atlantic Basin have provided extra fuel for tropical systems so far this hurricane season. They could influence maybe a not-so-typical El Niño winter, too.
Many factors can and do go into these forecasts in addition to prevailing climate patterns. Schmitt says Salient’s method combines “novel insights including the role of the ocean in the climate system, the latest weather data, and even a new machine-learning engine.”
Artificial intelligence is set to play a larger role in weather/climate forecasting — no doubt. Computer model predictions alone have advanced quite a bit over the last several years alone. This is apparent, especially when watching the tropics and witnessing increased accuracy of “spaghetti models” regarding storm development, timing, and movement. It’s impressive already. AI could take this to a whole new level.
Regardless of what forecast you heed, winter is coming. Indeed. There is still time to prepare for what may come.
“Winter temperature patterns have a strong influence on energy demand across the country, and by extension the pricing of natural gas and electricity. You don’t need to be an old farmer with an almanac to foresee the implications of that,” Schmitt concludes.
Which forecast will be more accurate? Only time will tell.
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