Is the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Over? AccuWeather Calls It Early

The calendar doesn’t say Nov. 30 yet, but experts at AccuWeather say it might as well be. The forecasters at the media company are declaring the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season over. Done!? The declaration is bold given there are still more than three weeks left in what’s considered the traditional season. Not to mention that this season has again exceeded normal averages (19 names storms and counting). But, AccuWeather has its reasons.

According to AccuWeather, current conditions in the tropics are less than ideal for any near-future development. High wind shear is the main culprit. More air movement in the upper atmosphere means less time for tropical systems to organize. This is typical of El Niño years. “It’s not a 0% chance of development, but it [will be] very, very difficult for tropical development from here on out,” says AccuWeather Veteran Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski.

Bottom line: AccuWeather is not foreseeing anything on the horizon that would directly impact the U.S. in the next three weeks. With that being the case, let’s compare how accurate the different long-range forecasts were this year.

2023 Atlantic hurricane season actuals to date via the National Hurricane Center: 19 named storms; 7 hurricanes; 3 of those being major.

• AccuWeather (update as of August): 13-17 named storms; 4-8 hurricanes; 1-3 major
• Colorado State University (update as of August): 18 named storms; 9 hurricanes; 4 major
• NOAA (update as of August):  14-21 named storms; 6-11 hurricanes; 2-5 major

All reporting agencies fared well. Nicely done! This really shows how far the technology has come in forecasting models.

The number of named storms in 2023 was again above historical average; this despite it being an El Niño year. Typically, tropical activity in the Atlantic basin is less due to more turbulent jet steam and wind patterns. Perhaps the extreme warm waters counteracted this. The fuel was definitely there for development, but the strong steering currents have won out. Most storms have stayed out over open waters. However, one of those storms (Idalia) made a big impact. The Category 4 storm slammed into Florida’s Big Bend area in late August. Early damage estimates indicated up to more than $447 million in total ag losses and damages across Florida from the major storm. It went on to cause significant damage and flooding in Georgia and South Carolina.

When reporting on the initial 2023 Atlantic hurricane forecast back in early April, I asked how will the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season be remembered? Idalia defined it. No doubt. Stats and predictions aside, all it takes is one. Idalia was that one.

Technically, the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is not over. The ocean waters are still exceptionally warm, especially in the Western Caribbean. Mother Nature will call it when she’s ready. That is a guarantee and this is why we watch.