Pre-Winter Weather Signals Farmers Should Know Now

Winter is coming — again — like it does every year. Will this winter be wild, mild, somewhere in between? Every year is different. Climatic conditions are constantly flexing. These conditions impact weather patterns that define seasons. Long-range weather forecasting relies on tracking these patterns and using historic references to form predictions. Modern technology like AI, however, is upping the weather forecasting game to new, hyper-focused levels. So, what will the 2025-2026 winter season bring? According to Planette, a San Francisco-based tech company that taps into long-range weather intelligence via its unique platform, farmers should be aware of early-season signals heading into this winter.

Currently, La Niña is the prevailing climate pattern in place. This usually leads to a more northerly storm track during the winter, leaving the southern tier of the U.S. warmer and drier. On the flip side, wetter and colder-than-average conditions for the entire northern tier of the continental U.S. can be expected.

A year ago at this time, we were talking about La Niña looming large in the 2024-2025 winter outlook. So, we can expect the same for this season, right? Not so fast.

Planette’s Winter 2025-2026 Long-Range Weather Forecast & Commodity Outlook is predicting “a winter marked by predictable volatility, with above-average temperatures and multiple cold snaps anticipated 30 to 40 days ahead.”

This prediction seems to track with other long-range outlooks. However, Planette’s CEO Dr. Hansi Singh says its forecast is not focusing as much on La Niña.

“There has been a lot of discussion about La Niña heading into winter, but it is too weak to matter,” she says. “What we’re seeing instead are other, more powerful patterns that create real trading opportunities.”

What are these weather patterns? Planette’s forecasts show two patterns are responsible for creating the conditions for a more “volatile” winter.

First, a dual “blob” system has developed in the North Pacific. This comprises a massive warm ocean temperature pattern roughly 5,000 miles across in the western sector and a contrasting cold mass in the Gulf of Alaska. According to Planette, “together, these drive major displacements of the jet stream northward. This creates a clear regional split as the Pacific Northwest gets wetter throughout winter, while California faces significantly drier-than-normal conditions for the next six months.”

Second, “a weakened polar vortex will allow Arctic air to spill southward in predictable patterns, providing 30 to 40 days of warning before that cold air reaches the surface. Multiple significant cold snaps are almost certain, likely starting late November or early December 2025.”

We’ve already experienced one massive dip in the jet earlier this month, which sent colder-than-normal temperatures dipping all the way into the Deep South and Florida. These sudden cold snaps obviously pose a risk for actively growing crops. In addition, Planette’s forecast notes California’s dry outlook puts pressure on water-intensive crops like nuts and stone fruits.

Now back to my earlier reference about using historic references to form long-range weather predictions. Planette’s outlook indicates there is a recent historical precedent for the current climate set-up.

“Winter 2013-2014, one of the most volatile and profitable winters on record for commodity traders, featured a similar large warm ocean ‘blob’ and multiple Arctic intrusions. Critically, that winter preceded the strongest El Niño on record in 2015-2016. If the pattern holds, winter 2025-2026’s volatility may be a precursor to a strong El Niño developing in 2026-2027, with potential record-breaking high temperatures beginning in late 2026 or 2027.”

History often repeats itself when it comes to weather. Will Planette’s AI-powered winter forecast platform verify? Let’s track and see.

You can download Planette’s Winter 2025-2026 Long-Range Weather Forecast & Commodity Outlook by clicking here.