Where Will We Need to be Growing Produce in 2045?
Record drought and frequent heat waves could change where farmers grow their crops in the future, according to a newly published study.
Approximately one-third of the vegetables and two-thirds of the fruit and nuts consumed in America are grown in California, which is home to 76,000 farms. But a changing landscape may force farmers to re-think where they plant their crops in the years ahead. According to the research led by a team at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab), some California regions may become too hot and dry to support continued production.
The data suggests that by 2045-2049, temperatures will impact the timing and the location of when and where crops can grow.
“To ensure food security for California and the rest of the country, it’s important to predict how future warming will affect California agriculture,” Alison Marklein, the paper’s lead author, said in a statement. “We need reliable information about how future climate conditions will impact our crops in order for the agricultural system to develop an adequate response to ensure food security. For instance, one major challenge when considering relocating crops is that growers have specialized knowledge of their land and crops. If crops can no longer be grown in their current locations, then the farmer has to either move to a new area or grow a different crop, which presents a practical and economic burden on the farmer.”
The team analyzed 15 years of air temperature data and information about crop temperature thresholds, as well as crop growing locations.
Graphic courtesy of the Berkeley Lab
Researches also looked at future warming scenarios to determine how much of the land would no longer be able to support the crops due to rising temperatures.
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