Washington Apple Harvest Forecast: The New Normal
August 9, 2023 The 2023 Washington apple crop is expected to return closer to a normal size this year, according to the Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA) estimate of just over 134 million standard 40-pound boxes of fresh apples, a 29% increase from 2022’s 104.3 million boxes.
The 2022 harvest was much smaller than normal due to a very cold spring, with snow that inhibited pollination during bloom. This year, moderate weather has helped growers deliver a healthy crop much closer (5% above) the previous six-year average production.
This return to historic norms is also seen in growers’ reports of good size distribution and expected high quality across all varietals. The forecast also illustrates the continued trend of varietal diversification, including ‘Honeycrisp’, ‘Ambrosia’, ‘Envy’ and ‘Cosmic Crisp’, with these four alone representing more than a quarter of forecast production.
Jon DeVaney
“There is a lot of excitement as we are seeing a more normal harvest and excellent fruit quality this year,” Jon DeVaney, WSTFA President, said. “A moderate spring and a warm early summer created near-perfect growing conditions, so our domestic and foreign customers are going to see great size, color, and overall good quality in our apples. The harvest is just getting underway now, and our growers look forward to bringing in a great harvest that will benefit consumers around the state, country, and world.”
Though while above the previous six-year average production, the crop was nowhere close to the monster crops of just a few years ago, as Chris Gerlach, Director of Industry Analytics for the U.S. Apple Association, noted in a blog post earlier this year.
“From 2019 to 2022, Washington’s total apple production has fallen from 181 million bushels to 143 million bushels – a more than 20% decrease. While there are several factors contributing to those declines, the most significant may have been the unprecedented heat wave in June 2021 that damaged large amounts of fruit and negatively impacted the sizes and storability of the remaining fresh apples,” Gerlach noted. “The effects of that event continue into this season as residual stress, along with a cold spring and poor pollination, has led to further year-over-year declines.”
The 2023 WSTFA forecast indicates robust production in five popular varietals. ‘Gala’ represents the largest part of the harvest at 19.8%, ‘Red Delicious’ is projected at 13%, followed by ‘Honeycrisp’ at 14.6%, ‘Granny Smith’ at 13.8%, and ‘Fuji’ at 11.7% of total production. ‘Cosmic Crisp’, a proprietary varietal grown only in Washington state continues to grow in its share of the total crop, with 5.9% of the harvest. This reflects the ongoing diversification of the state’s apple production to serve a diverse and growing customer base.
Washington apples are vital to the state’s economy and are its leading agricultural commodity by production value. Apples represented 21% of the state’s total agricultural value in 2021. Twenty percent of the harvest was exported in 2022, down from the five-year average of 28% due to lower overall production in 2022. In an average year, the apple harvest alone produces a total economic impact to the state of $7.5 billion and supports nearly 40,000 direct jobs and 21,000 indirect jobs in support industries.
The organic apple market continues to grow, and Washington also leads the nation in the production of organic apples, WSTFA notes. The organic forecast for 2023 is 21 million boxes, or 15.7% of the total harvest. It should be noted that not all organic production is packed and marketed as organic and WSTFA members are always working on new strategies and techniques to deliver fresh, healthy apples. “Our growers have a long tradition of meeting consumer demand, and they are proving it again by producing more 93% of the country’s organic apple output,” added DeVaney.
It is great for the state and for consumers around that world that the state’s growers have rebounded from a down year with a strong, healthy crop in 2023, said Derek Sandison, Director of the Washington State Department of Agriculture. “More importantly, thanks to moderate weather the quality of apples is exceptionally high,” he says. “Apples are Washington state’s calling card to every corner of the globe. This year, we are literally putting our best crop forward and that’s good for our state economy, our workforce, and our growers.”
The forecast is based on a survey of WSTFA members and represents the best estimate of the total volume of apples that will eventually be packed and sold on the fresh market (excluding product sent to processors). Apple harvest typically begins in August and continues into November, and as a result, this forecast is still subject to several months of variable weather which can affect the final harvest total.
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