Waiting for a Rebound in the Wine Grape Sector

Unfortunately for the wine grape sector — reeling because of diminished alcohol consumption, oversupply, and erratic weather — a majority of growers experienced decreased production in 2025, according to the annual State of the Fruit and Nut Industry survey conducted by American Fruit Grower/Western Fruit Grower.

While 29% report increased production last year, 44% cite decreases. Worse, a third of all respondents clarify those production losses to be more than 10%. In turn, expectations for 2026 are curbed: 21% are increasing production but 30% are looking in the opposite direction.

“We were down 30% of average on our harvest,” a California wine grape grower says. “Many clients still do not have grape contracts this season. Our workload is being cut 35%. No development is coming on for 2026 or 2027 yet.”

“I hope the market is at the bottom and will start to rebound at least by next year,” another California grower says. “Just surviving until next year will be a challenge. Wine consumption is down for a number of reasons. If enough acres are removed and we get to a balance of supply and demand, that will help stabilize the market. There is still too much inventory.”

Still too much … despite production-hindering inclement weather.

“The cooler weather cost me for a buyer of tons of grapes,” a California grower says. “For the first time in 30 years of growing wine grapes, I ended up with fruit hanging on the vine.”

“Global warming is causing wide swings in temperature,” a South Dakota wine grape grower notes. “Many weeks we are 10˚F or 20˚F above normal high. We seem to arrive at spring bud burst at about our long-term typical dates, but then we can expect a Mother’s Day freeze event, not the norm. Also, the season is extended by about a month or six weeks for frost-free growing days. Freight costs are through the roof. I thought rates would come down after Covid, but this is locked-in pricing. I don’t get any higher price for my grapes than I did before COVID. We are not supported by USDA subsidies.”

Sums up one grower: “Wine sales are slumping. Wineries are panicking.”

Some wineries. But not all viticulturists.

EMPHASIZING THE POSITIVE

Asked to cite their most rewarding farm experiences in 2025, grape growers relay the following accomplishments:

• “Being able to keep our core group of workers busy throughout the year.”
• “Planting a new vineyard.”
• “Keeping a positive attitude and a strong faith in God.”
• “Our private-label customers taking more than forecasted.”
• “A good crop while most others around us had problems with weather. We just happened to be in a sweet spot.”
• “Getting a 95 score from Wine Enthusiast for our organic Pinot Noir grapes made into wine by Reeve Wines.”

Lessons can also be learned from the minority of growers who did make a profit last year. Many cut costs by reducing labor (“no overtime”) and expectations (“we reduced harvest to only Grade A product”). Others shifted toward efficiency (“installed a new time-keeping system”) and automation (“prune by machine”). Another heightened his direct-to-consumer marketing.

Finally, one California grower, echoing the sentiment of several colleagues, “prays for someone to buy our grapes.” Hopefully, those prayers are answered in 2026.

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Click here to see more findings from the 2026 State of the Fruit and Nut Industry survey.