U.S. Apple Forecast Comes in at 243.8 Million Bushels
August 20, 2021 U.S. apple growers expect to produce a total of 243.8 million bushels this year, according to the projection reached by USApple members today representing various regions of the country at the U.S. Apple Association’s 126th annual Outlook Conference.
This year’s total is down 5.7% from last year, and 9.4% below the five-year average. The forecast is quite a bit below the recent USDA forecast of 265.4 bushels, with growers pinning much of the decline on the extreme heat in some regions, particularly the Pacific Northwest, which produces more than two-thirds of the nation’s crop.
As far as individual states, the projections are as follows: New York, 30 million bushels, down 9% from last year, and 6% below the five-year average; Pennsylvania, 10.5 million, up 5.8%, down 8.4%; Virginia, 4.75 million, up 22.4%, up 3.7%; Michigan, 18.25 million, down 17.3% down 26.3%; California, 4.4 million, down 31.7%, down 26.8%; Oregon, 4.2 million, 0%, up 1.1%; Washington, 157.3 million; down 4.5%, down 8.4%; and the remainder of the states, 14.4 million, 0%, down 1.1%.
One highlight of the conference was the presentation of the Apple Grower of the Year award by American Fruit Grower® and Western Fruit Grower® magazines, sponsored by Valent USA. The Hardy family: Chip, Trevor, and Tyler, Brookdale Fruit Farm, Hollis, NH, were honored.
Speakers at the conference included Dr. Rachel Cheatham, Foodscape Group; Steve Lutz, Category Partners; Bruce Knight, Strategic Conservation Solutions; and Michael Anderson, Corn Refiners Association. To read some highlights from their speeches, check out David Eddy’s Twitter feed.
While the COVID-19 pandemic has tested the apple industry up and down the supply chain, it has also presented unique opportunities, according to a new report released at the conference. Considering these opportunities, and despite a challenging 18 months, apple production is expected to exceed 11 billion pounds this crop year.
#AppleOutlook2021 Steve Lutz, Category Partners: COVID-19 was great for retail sales of fruit, not so much supermarkets, but dollar stores. Now more dollar stores in U.S. than supermarkets. pic.twitter.com/DdeclaN4Id
— David Eddy (@dave_wfg_avg) August 19, 2021
USApple released “Industry Outlook 2021,” which provides the most up-to-date data and analysis on U.S. and global apple production, utilization, and trade. Authored by USApple Director of Industry Analytics Chris Gerlach, the report takes an in-depth look at the many trends and forces — from H-2A labor issues to online grocery shopping — helping to shape the U.S. apple industry.
Production
According to a USApple analysis of USDA data, total U.S. apple production for the 2021-2022 crop year will exceed 11.1 billion pounds, or 265.4 million bushels, as stated above. This represents a 2.7% increase compared to 2020-21 crop year production of 258.6 million bushels and is 1.3% less than the five-year production average.
Gerlach noted that these figures contained in the report are more comprehensive than USDA data, which only looks at the top seven apple-producing states. “We’ve analyzed the production from states outside of the top seven and added that back to USDA’s figure,” explained Gerlach.
At the varietal level, ‘Gala’ is expected to retain the top spot with almost 49.3 million bushels produced, accounting for around 19% of the U.S. apple market. Rounding out the top five are ‘Red Delicious’ (35.7 million bushels), ‘Honeycrisp’ (31 m bu), ‘Fuji’ (29.1 m bu) and ‘Granny Smith’ (27.2 m bu). This is the same order the top five were in 2020.
Trade
With respect to fresh apple imports and exports, the U.S. still retains a healthy positive trade balance. In the 2020-2021 crop year. the U.S. exported almost 41 million bushels of fresh apples while only importing around 5.2 million bushels. These net exports (35.6 m bu) are valued at almost $773.8 million.
#AppleOutlook2021 Michael Anderson, VP of Trade & Industry Affairs, Corn Refiners Association: Trump was completely opposed to NAFTA, and other trade agreements, and wanted to go it alone. Biden, on the other hand, has shown he wants the U.S. to engage with other countries. pic.twitter.com/q20ZG4fTAa
— David Eddy (@dave_wfg_avg) August 20, 2021
“On a year-over-year basis, while the balance of trade has declined with respect to quantity, it has increased in value,” said Gerlach. “This is primarily being caused by a rapid decline in the value of imports from the 2019-20 crop year, but is also due to some resilience in export values which have not decreased as much relative to export quantities.”
Labor
“Any assessment of the U.S. apple industry must consider the agricultural employment situation,” said Gerlach. “We are losing domestic workers faster than we can replace them and so, increasingly, growers have had to turn to seasonal migrant labor, or H-2A workers, to meet their needs.”
#AppleOutlook2021 Mike Preacher, Chair, USApple Board of Directors: Apple industry supports over 140,000 jobs. pic.twitter.com/jtBnpEWlC9
— David Eddy (@dave_wfg_avg) August 20, 2021
This is a critical issue for the U.S. apple industry because this source of labor is expensive and getting more so. In the Pacific Northwest, for example, the Adverse Effect Wage Rate (AEWR), the minimum compensation rate for H-2A labor, has been increasing by more than 5% annually for the last 10 years.
From 2014 to 2020, average annual crop production employment fell by 3% and, in apple orchards specifically, it declined by 20%.
Consumer Trends
“Fortunately, throughout the disruptions brought on by COVID-19, the U.S. apple industry has not seen any considerable decrease in domestic demand,” said Gerlach.
Throughout the pandemic, apple packers and marketers have been quick to respond by offering bagged apples that give consumers added peace of mind by reducing the handling needed to stock and pick the fruit. Also, notes Gerlach, the most significant consumer trend to come out of the pandemic was the rate at which shoppers embraced e-commerce grocery shopping, which also aided the sale of apples. By the first quarter of 2021, e-commerce had grown to account for 3.5% of food and beverage store sales at $6.9 billion (up from $1.5 billion in Q1 of 2018 – an increase of more than 377%).
“All of these external forces, from labor costs to consumer grocery trends, will continue to shape apple production and utilization throughout the coming years,” said Gerlach.
The attendance at the conference, as expected because of the pandemic, was down from previous years. Also, USApple is one of the first agriculture associations to resume in-person conferences since COVID-19 began. However, USApple President Jim Bair said that while international attendance was way down, domestic attendance was actually higher than in past years.
“Outlook attendance numbers show that the apple industry is ready to get back to seeing one another and having those in-person experiences as the ‘new normal’ begins to take shape,” Bair said. “We are pleased that USApple is helping lead the industry forward by being one of the first association meetings to be held in person.”
Kicking off the conference, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack spoke to attendees via video.
“Whether you’re from Washington or New York, Michigan, or California, or one of the many great states that helps ensure a viable apple industry here in the United States and abroad, I’m pleased to see you gathered together to discuss critical issues and to look toward the future,” Vilsack told growers.
During his remarks, Vilsack spoke of challenges facing the apple industry, including the need for further work to resolve outstanding trade commitments and tariff disputes. He also commended the apple industry for its work on the bipartisan Farm Workforce Modernization Act.
“This legislation provides farm workers, many of whom have lived in this country for years, an opportunity to earn citizenship,” said Vilsack. “It will also reform the H-2A program and provide more flexibility for employers and streamlines the visa process.”
Trade exports and reforming agriculture labor are both top priority issues for USApple.
“From a ‘Gala’ to a ‘Red Delicious’ or a ‘Golden Delicious’, the U.S. apple industry truly represents the best of America,” concluded Vilsack.
Subscribe Today For
