How Low Will the Florida Citrus Crop Estimate Go?
February 10, 2022 The recent cold snap that smacked the Sunshine State at the end of January put produce growers of all types on the defensive to protect and save crops. Citrus growers were along the front lines as frigid air invaded many groves. And in a season where production numbers are fighting through challenges, an extreme weather event is the last thing needed.
So, where does that put Florida’s signature crop? The latest citrus crop forecast from USDA came in at 43.5 million boxes of oranges. This is a 2% drop from last month’s report. The figure is broken down as 17.5 million boxes of early, mid-season varieties, and 26 million boxes of Valencia. If this total comes to fruition, it will be 18% less than last season’s final production of 52.8 million boxes.
During the 1997-1998 season — in a world before HLB — a record 244 million boxes of oranges was harvested.
With production of early and mid-season varieties wrapped up, attention is squarely on Valencia. According to USDA’s report, current fruit size is below the minimum and is projected to be below the minimum at harvest. Current droppage is above average and projected to be above average at harvest.
Despite the continued squeeze, Shannon Shepp, Executive Director of the Florida Department of Citrus, says the determination of the Florida citrus industry is solid. “They remain committed in the face of known and unknown challenges to providing high-quality and great-tasting Florida citrus and orange juice.”
For grapefruit, it’s been steady sailing the last few crop estimates. A projection of 4.1 million boxes of grapefruit is unchanged from last month. That number would equal last season’s total output.
The next citrus forecast from USDA is scheduled to release on March 9. The final report will be given in July.
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