Hurricane Ian Blows In on Top of First 2022-2023 Florida Citrus Crop Forecast

By Paul Rusnak|Updated: October 18, 2022

Even though it’s been a couple weeks since Hurricane Ian tore through the Sunshine State, damage remains, and there’s likely more fallout to come for local farmers. Case in point: USDA’s initial citrus crop forecast for the 2022-2023 season. The numbers aren’t pretty on their own. Just wait.

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Major Hurricane Ian, with sustained winds of up to 155 mph, closed in on and made landfall in Florida on Sept. 28, 2022. The storm impacted the peninsula from coast to coast.
Image courtesy of NOAA
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Florida's citrus belt was in the direct path of Hurricane Ian. First looks showed copious fruit drop in some groves.
Photo by Gene McAvoy via Twitter
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Significant fruit drop being seen in groves around Southwest Florida harken back to five years ago after major Hurricane Irma moved through.
Photo by Gene McAvoy via Twitter
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For fruit that didn't fall, it's only a matter of time given the twisting and turning action doled out by Hurricane Ian's winds.
Photo by Gene McAvoy via Twitter
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Uprooted orange trees and irrigation lines are being seen in some Southwest Florida citrus groves in the wake of Hurricane Ian.
Photo by Gene McAvoy via Twitter
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Several weeks after Hurricane Ian, signs of the storm and its strain on Florida citrus crops remain.
Photo by Gene McAvoy via Twitter
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Overall citrus grove damage from Hurricane Ian was extensive throughout Southwest Florida.

Photo courtesy of UF/IFAS
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Not only crops were impacted by Hurricane Ian on Florida farms. This ag worker housing unit in Charlotte County, FL, was left pummeled by the storm.
Photo by Gene McAvoy via Twitter
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Structural and equipment damages will be among the many issues for Florida growers digging out from Hurricane Ian.
Photo by Gene McAvoy via Twitter
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Portions of Central Florida received in excess of 20 inches of rainfall, thanks to the storm. Some parts of region remain flooded weeks after the storm.

Photo courtesy of St. Johns River Water Management District

Initial estimates for citrus production from the government agency are jarring:

All-orange production down 32% from last season
Non-Valencia (early varieties) production down 40% from last season
Valencia production down 25% from last season
Grapefruit (red and white) down 40%

And keep in mind, this forecast is derived from grove scouting survey work completed before Hurricane Ian! If the estimate comes to fruition, the total output for all oranges during 2022-2023 would be 28 million boxes (11 million early varieties plus 17 million boxes of Valencias). The all-orange tally from the 2021-2022 season was 41 million boxes.

The future forecasts from USDA are likely to show fluctuation, mostly because the true impact on trees won’t be known for some time. When I spoke to Ray Royce, Executive Director of the Highlands County Citrus Growers Association, a week after Hurricane Ian struck, he echoed this sentiment. “What previous storms have taught us, these trees will shed more fruit and leaves in the coming weeks. You can already see fruit that looks twisted and soft still on the tree. So, even trees that don’t look too beat up today, I think a week from now, we’ll see some leaf drop and another round of fruit loss. And there’s no doubt as you get into DeSoto County and down into Charlotte County, that it’s going to be worse.”

To put the 2022-2023 estimates in perspective, the final output for Florida oranges during the 2017-2018 season – which was in the aftermath of major Hurricane Irma — was 45 million boxes. Since then, fruit drop and disease pressure have continued to take a toll. Hurricane Ian’s landfall is only exacerbating the situation.

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“It is heartbreaking to see such an iconic Florida industry hurting right now,” says Nikki Fried, Florida Commissioner of Agriculture. “This year will be tough, no one is disputing that, but I believe in the tenacity and passion of our citrus industry professionals to come back stronger than ever. Side-by-side with our industry partners and stakeholders, I promise I will do everything in my power to secure all the available resources for Florida’s growers to recover from Hurricane Ian.”

In the meantime, there are actions growers can take now to prevent even further casualties from occurring in groves. Citrus experts from UF/IFAS compiled some helpful tips on what growers should look for and some recommended steps to take after the storm. Click here to check out that resource.

In addition, here are several helpful links for growers needing aid in the wake of Hurricane Ian:

Farm Service Agency Disaster Assistance Programs
Farm Service Agency Contacts in Florida by County
FEMA Disaster Recovery Center Locator and Individual Assistance to find the closest recovery center and other resources to assist you during your recovery
USDA Disaster Resource Center for updates on emergency designation areas and available assistance programs
Farmers.gov Protection and Recovery, including the five-step Disaster Assistance Discovery Tool to learn which USDA disaster assistance programs are available to assist you with your recovery
U.S. Department of Labor Disaster Unemployment Assistance to learn more about USDA Disaster Assistance Programs that may be right for you

The next 2022-2023 citrus crop report from USDA is scheduled to release on Nov. 9. It is expected the December estimate will factor in Hurricane Ian impacts.

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Paul Rusnak is the Senior Online Editor for Meister Media Worldwide's Specialty Crops Division, which consists of American Vegetable Grower, American Fruit Grower, and Greenhouse Grower magazines, all Meister Media brands. He is based in Northeast Florida. See all author stories here.