Latest Florida Citrus Forecast Has Grapefruit Trending Up
December 12, 2023 Florida citrus production has taken quite a tumble over the last two decades. Multiple game-changing factors have contributed to the attrition (extreme weather, pest pressure, urban sprawl, etc.). The largest contributor by far is HLB. The devastating disease has not only taken a big bite out of orange production, but also grapefruit. The latest citrus crop estimate from USDA though includes a nice jump in projected output for grapefruit. Something not seen in a long time.
The December citrus crop forecast shows a 26% increase in overall grapefruit production compared to the first 2023-2024 season estimate in October. The current forecast for all grapefruit is 2.4 million boxes, up 500,000 boxes. If this number holds, it will be 33% higher than last season’s final tally.
USDA notes: “Fruit size of red grapefruit at harvest is projected to be above average, and droppage is projected to be average. The white grapefruit forecast is raised 50,000 boxes and is now 300,000 boxes. Projected fruit size of white grapefruit at harvest is slightly above average while projected droppage is below average.”
What About Oranges?
The latest all-orange projection from USDA remains unchanged at 20.5 million boxes. Despite the modest number, that figure would be 30% improvement over last season.
Florida Department of Citrus Executive Director Shannon Shepp issued a statement in response to the latest citrus crop estimate. “Today’s citrus crop forecast is yet another indicator that a more integrated and innovative approach to combatting citrus greening as an industry is having an impact. While there are still challenges ahead, these forecasts are a foundation for optimism that we now feel across the communities that make up Florida’s iconic citrus industry. The Florida Department of Citrus will continue to focus on the recovery of the industry by supporting the expansion of new technologies, tools, and methods for growers to utilize in groves throughout the state.”
For Comparison Sake
During the 1997-1998 season, 244 million boxes of oranges (a record high) were harvested in Florida. During the 1996-1997 season, 55.8 million boxes of grapefruit came to fruition.
The next citrus crop estimate from USDA is scheduled to release Jan. 12, 2024.
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