Trick or Treat? What the Forecast Looks Like for Florida’s 2023-2024 Citrus Season
October 12, 2023 October is prime time for ghosts, goblins, and other things that go bump in the night. The first seasonal crop estimates for Florida citrus also come out in October. Like the ghouls that rule the darkness on Halloween, some might say the initial 2023-2024 season outlook for Florida orange production is downright scary.
USDA’s official all orange forecast for Florida is calling for a total of 20.5 million boxes. That number is roughly 8 million boxes less than last season’s initial estimate in Oct. 2022. However, it also is 30% more than last season’s total output of 15.9 million boxes.
After-effects from hurricanes Ian and Nicole, along with the continued HLB pressure, squeezed last season’s Florida orange production down to pre-World War II levels. Though USDA’s latest Florida orange production estimate is still conservative, it is still showing room for growth.
The slight forecast uptick is one positive to grow on. Another would be any new developments in the battle against HLB. Research on oxytetracycline hydrochloride trunk injections has shown promise for suppressing the disease. Trials are ongoing for treatment that involves inoculating trees. Will that be enough to finally turn the tide against HLB? Maybe. That might be just enough to feed optimism.
Grapefruit growers in the Sunshine State also are facing an uphill battle. USDA’s forecast for 2023-2024 is at 1.9 million boxes. That is up 5% from last season’s total.
How Does USDA Calculate Its Forecasts?
According to the government agency, citrus forecasts are based on actual fruit counts and measurements. The objective count method uses four components:
- bearing age trees provided from the latest Commercial Citrus Inventory;
- average fruit per tree obtained from the Limb Count survey using randomly selected trees and limbs;
- fruit size from the fruit measurement survey;
- fruit loss from the drop survey
Historic Perspective
During the 1997-1998 season, 244 million boxes of oranges (a record high) were harvested in Florida. During the 1996-1997 season, 55.8 million boxes of grapefruit came to fruition.
The next comprehensive Florida citrus production forecast from USDA is scheduled for Dec. 8.
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