Partly Sunny in Latest Florida Orange Forecast

Wanna know the secret to make any forecast change? Just wait a little while, and it will change. Such is certainly the case for USDA’s monthly Florida orange crop estimate. After a few consecutive reports of shrinking orange production, this month’s crop forecast is looking up – relatively speaking.

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The government agency has raised its all-orange crop estimate to 56 million boxes, an increase of 2 million boxes from last month’s tally. The total is broken out by early, mid-season varieties (22 million boxes) and Valencia oranges (34 million boxes). The bump narrows the gap a tad compared to the initial forecast given in October. There is still lots of wood to chop in terms of catching up with last season’s 68 million box total.

Harvest of non-Valencia varieties is just about wrapped up for the season, leaving the focus on Valencias. According to USDA’s report, “Current fruit size is below average and is projected to be below average at harvest. Current droppage is above the maximum and projected to be above the maximum at harvest.”

In short, keep an eye out for next month’s estimate, which will likely feature a few adjustments.

Florida Department of Citrus Executive Director Shannon Shepp responded to the latest citrus forecast with the following statement: “Today’s forecast gives us reason to be cautiously optimistic as we proceed through the remainder of the season,” she says. “We are hopeful growers will be able to harvest as much of the Valencia crop as possible with minimal drop in the months to come.”

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The grapefruit forecast for February, conversely, remained unchanged from last month at 4.6 million boxes. Last season’s grapefruit haul settled at 4.85 million boxes.

Come rain or shine, the next citrus crop estimate from USDA is scheduled to deploy on March 9. Get your guesses in now.

The next USDA Florida all-orange crop estimate will be ____________ than this month.

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