Opinion: Economy Improving For Growers
January 1, 2010 Some of you can probably remember back in the presidential campaign of 1992 — wow, has it really been 18 years? — when Bill Clinton kept hitting George H. W. Bush over the head with a version of the above headline. Of course, instead of “Lucky,” Clinton said “Stupid,” and it certainly resonated with voters. I changed the wording because not only are readers of American/Western Fruit Grower of well-above-average intelligence (hey, I’m no dummy, either), but because you are in fact lucky. Yep, even when it comes to the economy
I was reminded of that recently on a trip to the great Northwest for the annual meeting of the Washington State Horticultural Association, where I heard a lecture from an economist, Ed Seifried. You might recall the name, because I wrote about his talk in this space last year. Seifried, a circuit lecturer who’s on the faculty at Lafayette College in Pennsylvania, gave such a good speech in 2008 that the folks in Washington brought him back. I obviously agree that he’s well worth a listen.
Why? Seifried’s got three things going for him that almost all other economists don’t:
• He’s interesting, even engaging.
• I actually understand him.
• He’s not full of doom and gloom.
That last point is an exceedingly rare trait in most economists of late, and you really can’t blame them. An economist who smiles and nods through a recession would surely be hauled off to the loony bin. (Or given tenure, but that’s a column for another day.)
The “Lite” Economy
Yes, we’re in a recession, and things are really, really tough. But Seifried reminded his audience of one thing that those of us born in the U.S. tend to forget from time to time: You are Americans, and that makes you very lucky. “Over the rest of your life, you will have the same living standards, if not better,” said Seifried.
Other countries have it much worse in this global recession, he said. We will be able to withstand the blow much better because our economy is so massive. Everyone talks about China, but our economy is three times the size of China. Ditto Japan.
Seifried said he recalled reading several years ago about how large emerging nations such as China and Brazil would soon be overtaking the U.S. Hasn’t happened. “We produce in one month what Brazil does in a year,” he said. “Nobody does it like we do.”
Sure, conceded Seifried, there are major challenges ahead. Things will never be the same. Instead of returning to the house-of-cards economy of a couple years ago, we will settle into what he termed the “Lite” economy. (His spelling has something to do with beer.)
We have been forever changed. Like the survivors of The Great Depression, the vast majority of us will become much more thrifty, and much more suspicious of buying things on credit. Only buying things we can afford? What a concept.
“Reel back your expectations on growth and sales,” Seifried advised. Those expectations were built on a housing bubble that, like most bubbles, got increasingly thin as it expanded. When it popped, things changed. Get used to it.
But just remember Seifried’s take home-lesson: “Don’t be afraid of your economic future.”
And remember too, as we now embark on a new decade and a new chapter in the history of this great nation, that you are very lucky indeed to be an American.