First Predictions For The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
It hasn’t been all that long since the highly impactful 2024 Atlantic hurricane season wrapped up. And here we are already looking toward the horizon to see what the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will bring. Last season provided several major tropical punches that landed squarely on the jaws of communities near and far. This included four landfalling systems in the U.S., three of those with names now officially retired by the World Meteorological Organization – Beryl, Helene, and Milton. Numerous farm operations were in the path of these storms. For many farmers and countless others, recovery is still a work in progress.
So, what does this hurricane season have in store? The first predictions are in.
Colorado State University’s (CSU) Tropical Weather and Climate Research team, led by Dr. Phil Klotzbach, has just released its long-range outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. First glance at the numbers indicates another above-average season of tropical activity.
By the Numbers: CSU’s Extended-Range 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Activity Forecast
- Named Storms: 17 vs. (30-year historical average: 14)
- Hurricanes: 9 vs. (30-year historical average: 7)
- Major Hurricanes: 4 (30-year historical average: 3)
Eye on ENSO
Climate phase, in this case El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), always is a key influence on tropical cyclone probabilities. Near the peak of last season, La Niña was in control. The counterpart to El Niño is known to provide atmospheric ingredients conducive to more tropical development. This season, a transition to a more neutral phase is playing a role in the early forecasts.
A portion of Klotzbach’s report reads as follows: “Current La Niña conditions are likely to transition to ENSO neutral conditions in the next couple of months; however, there remains considerable uncertainty as to what the phase of ENSO will be this summer and fall. Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are generally warmer than normal, but not as warm as they were last year at this time.”
In addition, Klotzbach and crew provide hurricane landfall probabilities. For 2025, they are:
• 51% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880–2020 is 43%).
• 26% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average from 1880–2020 is 21%).
• 33% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville, TX (average from 1880–2020 is 27%).
• 56% for the Caribbean (average from 1880–2020 is 47%).
To read the entire CSU Extended-Range 2025 Hurricane Season Activity Forecast, click here.
AccuWeather’s Outlook
AccuWeather also has released its outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Its team of forecasters are calling for a “dynamic” hurricane season in the Atlantic. This translates into 13 to 18 named storms; 7 to 10 turning into hurricanes; and 3 to 5 of those being major (categories 3-5).
NOAA’s Take on the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
The official Atlantic hurricane season outlook from NOAA normally comes about 90 days or so after the very first forecasts. This year is no exception. And just like earlier forecasts from CSU, AccuWeather, and others, NOAA also is calling for an above-average season.
The government agency is predicting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms. Of those, 6 to 10 are forecast to become hurricanes, including 3 to 5 major hurricanes. NOAA’s confidence in these numbers is 70%.
Long-Range Hurricane Season Forecast Accuracy
The forecasts from CSU, AccuWeather, and NOAA are markedly less active than initial outlooks released ahead of last season. Words like “super-charged” and “explosive” were used to describe what was to come. While the overall number of storms predicted fell short in 2024, the potency of the storms that did develop and their impacts are what truly define a hurricane season. And what transpired in 2024 speaks for itself.
RELATED CONTENT: How Accurate Were Forecasts For the 2024 Hurricane Season?
The accuracy of extended forecasts relates to advances in technology. The latest forecast modeling is leaning more on AI to track potential tropical cyclones before they even form. There is a margin for error in any forecasting technology, of course. Anything beyond a week out must be taken with a large grain of salt. But, by and large, most tracking models were on the right path more often in 2024 than they weren’t.
CSU is scheduled to update its forecast June 11, July 9, and August 6.
No matter how many tropical storms form during the season, the old adage, “All it takes is one …,” is one to live by every year.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1 to Nov. 30. Storms can and do develop outside of those datelines.
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