2008 Apple Crop Forecast

2008 Apple Crop Forecast

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It seems like weather is always the wild card when it comes to projecting the apple crop forecast, and this year was no exception. Growers, processors, and marketers attending the U.S. Apple Association’s 2008 Apple Crop Outlook and Marketing Conference in Chicago in August cited hail in the Great Lakes and Northeast, drought (but thankfully no freeze) in the Southeast, and late-season cold temperatures in the West as contributing factors for how the crop was shaping up.

While bearing acreage is at its lowest level in 30 years, it’s no surprise that with much of the industry making the move to high-density plantings, volume has stayed consistent. USDA’s projected crop size for 2008 is 218 million bushels, which is up 1% from 2007 and down 4% from the five-year average. Roundtable discussions by Outlook Conference attendees led to a slight adjustment of these numbers, with growers projecting a crop of 207 million bushels, down 5% from 2007 and down 9% from the five-year average. Red and Golden Delicious continue their downward trend, but while Gala production continues to rise, Fujis have leveled off in recent years. A short crop should help growers deal with the ongoing labor shortage. On the price side, fresh prices remain strong, although a weak U.S. dollar, as well as rising production costs (see this month’s cover story) essentially offset the price increase.

Regional Reports

The chart at the bottom of the page includes state-by-state forecasts from USDA and USApple, but there are underlying factors at play.

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– East: Hail was the driving factor in the Northeast, with as much as 70% of acreage affected by hail in some areas of New York. Although it’s still too early to know for sure, it is estimated that a good chunk of the crop that would have gone to the fresh market will need to be moved to processing.

Further south, growers in Virginia and the Carolinas breathed a sigh of relief that they did not have a late-season freeze to deal with this year. However, drought conditions could have an effect on fruit size.

– Midwest: Hail was a problem in much of Michigan as well, although increased plantings of tall spindle training systems should lead to a rebound in future production. Further south, the absence of frost this year meant a dramatic jump in volume in many areas.

– West: Nearly 100 million of Washington’s estimated 122 million bushels will go to the fresh market. Late-season frost has led to late bloom, smaller fruit size, and a subsequent late harvest. According to Bruce Grim, the new executive director of the Washington State Horticultural Association, labor supplies seem adequate, although with the late crop, the market has not been tested yet.

Going Overseas

– Europe: Most of the leading European producers (France, Italy, Germany) will see smaller crops this year, leading to a 7% drop in production.

– China: The 2007 crop was a very small one, but this year’s crop should be back to normal, with a projected 15% increase.

– Canada: The projected Canadian crop is 21.2 million bushels, down 19% from 2007. Like much of the U.S., spotty frost and hail have made all the difference.

– Mexico: Total Mexican production is estimated at 19.1 million bushels, down 4% from 2007. Rising fuel costs in the U.S., as well as questions regarding light brown apple moth detections, are limiting Mexican imports.

Market Trends

The crop size was not the only thing discussed at this year’s Outlook Conference. A few other speakers commented on how changing market conditions are affecting consumption.

– Desmond O’Rourke, publisher of the World Apple Report and “Growing Without Borders” columnist for American/Western Fruit Grower, analyzed how the current economic slowdown is affecting the apple market. Lower-income groups have been the hardest hit, and are purchasing more processed foods today. O’Rourke’s advice to the industry: weed out poor-performing varieties, increase efficiency while reducing costs, and get apples on consumers’ shopping lists early.

– John Stanton, professor of food marketing at St. Joseph’s University in Pennsylvania, looked at consumer motivations. While good-tasting apples and health promotion may excite consumers, today’s economic climate means that good value now dwarfs every other factor. Stanton also affirmed that with food safety on everyone’s mind, local supplies mean a lot. Meanwhile, the organic market appears to have reached its peak.

2008 U.S. Apple Crop Forecast

State 2007 Apple Crop 2008 USDA Forecast (Vs. 2007) 2008 USApple Forecast Vs. 2007 Vs. 5-year Average
New York  31,190  27,381  (-12%)  23,500  -25%  -17%
Pennsylvania  11,190  9,524  (-15%)  9,750  -13%  -10%
Virginia  5,119  5,476   (+7%)  5,100  0%  -15%
North Carolina  1,429  3,929     (FD)  3,900  +173%  +25%
West Virginia  1,905  2,095 (+10%)  2,000  +5%  -1%
Vermont  905  964   (+7%)  964  +7%  +6%
New Jersey  1,000  952   (-5%)  952  -5%  -6%
Massachusetts  917  905   (-1%)  850  -7%  -3%
Maine  952  881   (-7%)  881  -7%  0%
New Hampshire  821  845   (+3%)  845  +3%  +26%
Maryland  786  619  (-21%)  619  -21%  -29%
Connecticut  548  476  (-13%)  476  -13%  +3%
Georgia  48  286     (FD)  286  +501%  +11%
South Carolina  7  190     (FD)  100  +1,300%  +9%
Rhode Island  62  57   (-8%)  57  -8%  +12%
Total East  56,879  54,581   (-4%)  50,280  -12%  -11%
Michigan  18,333  12,857  (-30%)  12,500  -32%  -35%
Ohio  1,324  2,262 (+71%)  2,262  +71%  +9%
Wisconsin  1,405  1,310   (-7%)  1,400  0%  -2%
Missouri  71  1,286     (FD)  1,286  +1,700%  +40%
Illinois  119  1,238     (FD)  1,238  +940%  +21%
Indiana  786  1,000 (+27%)  1,000  +27%  -16%
Minnesota  619  550 (-11%)  550  -11%  -6%
Tennessee  2  214     (FD)  214  +8,888%  +8%
Kentucky  14  214     (FD)  214  +1,398%  +59%
Iowa  64  112 (+74%)  112  +74%  +3%
Total Midwest  22,738  21,043   (-7%)  20,776  -9%  -23%
Washington  123,810  128,571  (+4%)  122,100  -1%  -6%
California  8,214  7,619    (-7%)  7,619  -7%  -14%
Oregon  3,214  4,048 (+26%)  4,048  +26%  +17%
Idaho  833  1,310 (+57%)  1,310  +57%  -13%
Arizona  548  476  (-13%)  476  -13%  -16%
Colorado  310  357 (+15%)  357  +15%  -31%
Utah  452  214  (-53%)  214  -53%  -65%
Total West  137,381  142,595  (+4%)  136,124  -1%  -6%
Total U.S.  216,998  218,219   (+1%)  207,180  -5%  -9%

Measured in 000 42-lb. units
Source: USDA-National Agricultural Statistics Service, Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Summary, various years and Crop Production, Aug. 12, 2008
FD: Severe frost damage reduced the size of the 2007 crops in these states, therefore 2008 comparisons are more than 100%.

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