U.S. Apple Forecast Arrives at 244.2 Million Bushels
August 19, 2022 When the most prominent apple-producing state takes a hit, the rest of the country feels it.
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Hindered by a lower-than-anticipated projection out of Washington state, U.S. apple growers as a whole expect to produce 244.2 million bushels during the 2022-2023 year. The total represents a 1.7% decrease from this past year’s total.
Those figures, based on the consensus of U.S. Apple Association members, were presented by the organization at its 127th annual Outlook conference Aug. 19 in Chicago.
The industry’s other annual forecast, released by USDA earlier in August, had been somewhat more positive overall — 255 million bushels overall, representing a 2.7% increase year over year. But that was before growers in Washington state updated USApple on their status going into this year’s harvest.
Washington, which has comprised 64% of the U.S. market share over the last five years, expects an 11.2% decrease in 2022-23. Production is estimated to be 143 million bushels, down from 154.8 million last year. USDA had forecast only a 3.8% drop.
Reasons for the reduction in Washington’s estimated harvest this year, according to USApple, include a wet, windy, and colder-than-usual spring; hail events in some regions of the state; residual damage from the June 2021 heatwave; and low-return bloom (smaller sizes/reduced tonnage).
Pennsylvania, the fourth-ranked state in apple production, fears a 17.1% decrease, with 11 million bushels. USDA had expected a similar decrease of 17.4%.
Meanwhile, the remaining five states large enough to be singled out by USApple and USDA expect to fare much better in 2022-23.
Michigan growers, who experienced a short crop last year due to frost, anticipate an 88.9% increase year over year and a total of 29.5 million bushels in 2022-23. In Virginia the forecast calls for a 25.5% increase to 4.9 million bushels. And Oregon apple production is expected to hit 4.2 million bushels, a rise of 12.5%.
Also optimistic are growers in New York (32.3 million bushels, up 1.3% from last year), California (5.4 million, up 5%), and the “other” 43 U.S. states collectively (13.9 million, 0%). Of note, the category of grouped states now ranks fourth among producers, ahead of Pennsylvania.
Variety Roundup
‘Gala’ is expected to retain the top spot with almost 46 million bushels produced, accounting for around 18% of the U.S. apple market. Rounding out the top five are ‘Red Delicious’ (34 million bushels), ‘Fuji’ (26), ‘Honeycrisp’ (25), and ‘Granny Smith’ (24).
In general, the varieties on the rise include ‘Honeycrisp’, ‘Pink Lady’/’Cripps Pink’, and ‘Cosmic Crisp’. ‘Fuji’, ‘Granny Smith’, and ‘Rome’ varieties have remained relatively consistent compared to 2017-18 production volumes. Varieties on the decline include ‘Golden Delicious’, ‘Gala’, and ‘Red Delicious’.
“On the positive side, ‘Honeycrisp’ production has increased by 48% or 8 million bushels in the past five years,” USApple Director of Industry Analytics Chris Gerlach said. “Conversely, ‘Red Delicious’ decreased by 41% or 24 million bushels during the same period.”
Trade Recap
With respect to fresh apple imports and exports, the U.S. still retains a healthy, positive trade balance. In 2021-22 the U.S. exported more than 38.5 million bushels of fresh apples while only importing around 6.3 million bushels. These net exports (32.2 million bushels) are valued at almost $730 million.
“On a year-over-year basis, the balance of trade has declined with respect to both quantity and value,” Gerlach said. “On the quantity side, imports have increased by 20% over 2020-2021 calendar year levels while exports have declined. On the value side, exports have increased marginally, but imports are up almost 30%. This means that in the 2021-2022 calendar year, the U.S. was bringing in a greater amount of more expensive fruit and sending out a smaller amount of slightly more expensive fresh apples.”
Database Launch
Gerlach introduced the Newton online database and dashboard. Several years in the making, Newton is a one-stop-shop for apple-related statistics. From annual production to monthly storages, Newton gives users the ability to view preset reports or create custom queries for download. Newton’s dashboard also keeps users up to date on the latest trends in apple prices and trade.
“We are extremely excited to launch this unique USApple member benefit,” Gerlach said. “Newton consolidates data from USApple and multiple USDA sources into one place, giving users up-to-date information on apple production, utilization, trade, prices, storages, movement, economic impacts, and more.”
Users can select from preset reports or create custom queries for download and off-site analysis. Newton allows users to ask questions and test theories, providing unbiased insights into important apple-industry trends.
Rice Fruit VP Named Chair
USApple named Brenda Briggs the Chair of its Board of Directors for the 2022-23 term. She has served on the board since 2018, most recently as Vice Chair. Briggs is Vice President of Sales and Marketing with Rice Fruit Co., a Pennsylvania-based marketer, packer and shipper.
Brenda Briggs
“We are thrilled to have Brenda at the helm of USApple’s board of directors,” USApple President and CEO Jim Bair said. “Her passion for the apple industry, growers, and USApple is unequivocal. She is highly respected in the industry because she’s not afraid of hard work and is always ready to lend a hand. She has served in many volunteer roles at USApple since the beginning of her career, and I couldn’t be more delighted to see her commitment pay off in her new role as chair.”
Briggs succeeds 2021-22 USApple Chair Chris Alpers, Operations Manager and grower with Redpath Orchards.
USApple’s 2022-23 elected board officers include: Steve Clement, Sage Fruit, Vice Chair; Brett Baker, United Apple Sales, Secretary; and Craig Hinkle, Knouse Foods, Treasurer. USApple also elected the following two new members to its board: Beth Brown of Orchard Dale Fruit Co. and Kristin Kershaw Snapp of Domex Superfresh Growers.
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