From Surplus to Flux: Apple Harvest Numbers Remain a Challenge

The U.S. apple industry — one year after producing a record 289 million bushels — had been hoping for a sizable downturn in 2024 to potentially increase the price of its product. Unfortunately, last year’s apple harvest was not only plentiful once again but also larger than first estimated in August.

Updated to account for December storage numbers, USApple has moved from its August estimate of 260 m bu to a current projection of between 260 and 300 m bu. The organization’s final tally will be announced in August after waiting, for the first time, to factor in July and August numbers. Until then, why the broad estimate?

To preface, USApple, every December, takes the storage volume of the previous five seasons and determines an average that it applies to USDA’s eventual final production number. In this case, that average is 56%. Conversely, that means 44% of the U.S. apples produced the last five years would have “moved” before Dec. 1 instead of going into storage.

But that calculation does not jibe with USApple’s August estimate of 260 m bu. The pre-December movement would be only 35% of that figure instead of 44%. Which begs the question: Was the latest apple movement going into December relatively slow? Or was the August production estimate low?

For the time being, USApple is now running with two 2024 estimates: a lower bound (260 m bu) and upper bound (300 m bu). And with good reason.

Preseason movement has already been “healthy,” according to Chris Gerlach, USApple’s Vice President of Insights and Analytics. From August through November, 56 m bu moved, well above the average of 49 m bu the previous five years.

“Initially you’d think, ‘OK, that means pre-December movement is not slow; it’s actually faster than normal,” Gerlach said. “And that would tend toward that higher range (300 m bu).”

However, Gerlach took the extra step of differentiating the August to November movement between 2024 apples and 2023 apples. The results are telling: 41% of the 56 m bu moved apples represents the 2023 record-breaking crop, compared with an average of 29% the previous five years.

“Every harvest season we’re not just moving that season’s apples. We’re also getting rid of last season’s apples,” Gerlach said. “So, 4 out of 10 apples that we’ve sold this harvest season already — 23 m bu worth — have been the 2023-2024 crop that we’re trying to get out the door before we really start moving into the 2024-2025 crop.”

In turn, this would seem to indicate that movement has been slow, Gerlach said. “Well, movement overall hasn’t been slow, but movement of this year’s crop has been relatively slower,” he said. “So, that points toward the lower end of that range between 260 and 300 m bu.”

Where does that put USApple at the end of the day, Gerlach asked? “Let’s call it somewhere in the middle. I don’t have an exact figure. Let’s call it 280 m bu. That’s an approximate adjustment of the adjustment — a recalibration of our August adjustment.”

In other news from USApple’s annual December storage update:

Variety Figures Year over Year (December): ‘Cosmic Crisp’ is up 66% at 15 m bu while ‘Gala’ is up 4% at 26 m bu. Moving in the other direction are ‘Honeycrisp’, down 32% at 18 m bu and ‘Red Delicious’, down 8% at 23 m bu.

Exports: U.S. exports dropped 41% between 2014-2015 and 2022-2023, although they did rise 47% year over year in 2023-2024. The 2024-2025 season, to date, is 1.5 m bu behind the pace of the 2014-15 season and 0.7 m bu behind that of the 2023-24 campaign. “We’re heading in the right direction. Positive signs,” Gerlach said. “We’re a little bit under (this season). We need to keep our foot on the gas so we can find a home for all of these apples and keep domestic prices high.”

The U.S.’s No. 1 market, Mexico, accounts for 36% of its exports and is worth $391 million to the country. Behind Mexico is Canada at 15% and $166 million. “Taken together, that’s more than 5.5 million. We’re sending 25 m bu there – basically a Michigan-size crop,” Gerlach said. “Fifty-two percent of our exports are going to just these two markets.”

The rest of the top 10 is, in order, Taiwan, Vietnam, India, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Colombia, Hong Kong, and Thailand. Total export numbers are $1.1 billion in sales of 47 m bu. “That’s the equivalent of a Michigan, a Pennsylvania, and a Virginia combined.”