Is The ‘Agripocalypse’ Nearing? [Opinion]

Paul Rusnak

Paul Rusnak

Tick-tock, tick-tock. Time waits for no man, woman, child — no one, especially not young farmers. This fact was verified according to a recent study that predicts there will be no farmers younger than 35 by 2033. None? If true, that would mean the ultimate death of farming, given there will be no one eventually left to carry on.

Now before everyone starts to stockpile canned goods and fuel, let’s put this study in perspective. The article, which appeared in a recent issue of Rangelands (the official publication of the Society for Range Management), focused squarely on trends regarding Wyoming’s aging agriculture landscape. Poring through decades of census and employment data, the authors were able to come up with the sobering conclusion: no operators younger than 35 by 2033 and an average age of 60 by 2050.

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Such a prediction scoffs at the very core of the GenNext Growers initiative.

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But this is just a Wyoming thing, right? No, not really. The study’s authors show those same trends are occurring throughout the U.S. The study counters the GenNext factor by indicating that even if your children and their children have an interest in keeping the family business alive, they most likely won’t be able to afford the endeavor, forced to sell the land and equipment to get out from under.

As expected, when we posted the news item about this study, it sparked a flurry of reader comments. Click here to see all the banter and/or to submit a comment yourself.

Interestingly enough, a few days after that study dropped, I spotted an article on NPR.org titled: “A Young Generation Sees Greener Pastures In Agriculture.” This sounds like quite a contrast to the Rangelands piece, right? Yes and no. The article focuses on the cultural shift toward valuing agriculture, which is great, but to what extent? Treating farming as a hip hobby isn’t going to feed and clothe the masses.

There was one mention in the NPR article that did jibe with the Rangelands report. In some parts of the country, farmland value is at a premium. Florida farmland is in hot demand now (as you well know). Expense is a common barrier to entry for most individuals, especially the younger set. It’s doubtful cost of living will stop climbing anytime soon.

In It For The Long Haul

It’s difficult (at best) to know what’s going to happen next week, let alone over the course of 18 years. But in this case, we can’t afford to speculate.

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Be proactive in encouraging today’s young growers to get more involved in the industry. This will prepare them for future leadership posts. Another action item should be for current GenNexters to embrace the challenge ahead, which will serve as an example for those who follow them. Just think of the fresh ideas coming to the table.

Perhaps 2033 (give or take a few years) will be the beginning of the end for farming as we know it. Or, it could be the start of something really good.

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Avatar for Hobart Swan Hobart Swan says:

Anecdotal evidence pales before empirical studies. But I will say that at our company (which makes inventory management software for the fresh produce industry), we see a lot of growers who are listed as the “operators” well into their 80s. Their adult children work at high-level jobs in the companies, but are not yet the operator.

In all of these cases, one of the major concerns of the older generation is making sure that the business end of the operation is up to speed with current technology. This not only helps the business run as efficiently as possible, but also helps attract younger generations. People not involved in farming may not appreciate just how large a role technology plays in growing and packing fresh produce. And it is in technology (including the coming critical role of precision agricultural drones) that farming has a chance to attract younger people. Out under the blue skies, drone control box in hand… seems like a dream come true for many young people.

Avatar for fairfarm fairfarm says:

Could it be that those things that are unsustainable, will fail? Things like ever increasing population levels. What would the dialog sound like if we talked about shooting for a better life for a sustainable population rather than “gearing up for the increasing billions of people by mid century”? Aren’t the predicted mega droughts, fertilizer shortages, erratic fuel supplies, etc., going to have a dramatic effect on food supplies, hence how agriculture is done? Like they say in the investment industry, ” past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.”

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