Latest Florida Citrus Forecast Reveals Huge Impacts from Hurricane Ian

The Florida citrus industry has been in a pitched battle with deadly diseases and diminishing production. The uphill climb for growers and industry stakeholders took another big blow recently with Hurricane Ian. Numbers in the latest USDA citrus crop forecast show just how much of an impact the Category 4 storm left in its wake.

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Updated figures for 2022-2023 all-orange production indicate a 29% decline from the October report. This puts the current forecast at 20 million boxes (7 million boxes of early, mid-season varieties plus 13 million boxes of Valencias). Adding insult to injury, the season’s initial forecast already was well down from last season’s output of 41 million boxes.

Forecasters are noting smaller fruit sizes on the trees and predicting droppage to be above the maximum at harvest.

When I spoke to Ray Royce, Executive Director of the Highlands County Citrus Growers Association, a week after Hurricane Ian struck, he said to expect fluctuations in future crop forecasts as after-effects play out. “What previous storms have taught us, these trees will shed more fruit and leaves in the coming weeks.”

Similar to oranges, grapefruit also took another squeezing. It fell 200,000 boxes from October’s report to an estimated 1.8 million boxes.

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Shannon Shepp, Executive Director of the Florida Department of Citrus, says growers are focused on recovery and continue to invest in new tools to help rebuild.

“The December crop forecast reflects the very real challenges that Hurricane Ian, Hurricane Nicole, and the ongoing impacts of citrus greening have created. We remain hopeful and motivated to secure the future of our industry. Florida citrus growers are resilient. They have withstood centuries of extreme weather, and this hurricane season is no exception.”


Did You Know/Do You Remember?

During the 1997-1998 season, 244 million boxes of oranges (a record high) were harvested in Florida. During the 1996-1997 season, 55.8 million boxes of grapefruit came to fruition.


USDA is scheduled to update its citrus crop forecast on Jan. 12, 2023.

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