Latest Florida Citrus Forecast Reveals Huge Impacts from Hurricane Ian

By Paul Rusnak|December 9, 2022

The Florida citrus industry has been in a pitched battle with deadly diseases and diminishing production. The uphill climb for growers and industry stakeholders took another big blow recently with Hurricane Ian. Numbers in the latest USDA citrus crop forecast show just how much of an impact the Category 4 storm left in its wake.

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Major Hurricane Ian, with sustained winds of up to 155 mph, closed in on and made landfall in Florida on Sept. 28, 2022. The storm impacted the peninsula from coast to coast.
Image courtesy of NOAA
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Florida's citrus belt was in the direct path of Hurricane Ian. First looks showed copious fruit drop in some groves.
Photo by Gene McAvoy via Twitter
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Significant fruit drop being seen in groves around Southwest Florida harken back to five years ago after major Hurricane Irma moved through.
Photo by Gene McAvoy via Twitter
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For fruit that didn't fall, it's only a matter of time given the twisting and turning action doled out by Hurricane Ian's winds.
Photo by Gene McAvoy via Twitter
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Uprooted orange trees and irrigation lines are being seen in some Southwest Florida citrus groves in the wake of Hurricane Ian.
Photo by Gene McAvoy via Twitter
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Several weeks after Hurricane Ian, signs of the storm and its strain on Florida citrus crops remain.
Photo by Gene McAvoy via Twitter
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Overall citrus grove damage from Hurricane Ian was extensive throughout Southwest Florida.

Photo courtesy of UF/IFAS
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Not only crops were impacted by Hurricane Ian on Florida farms. This ag worker housing unit in Charlotte County, FL, was left pummeled by the storm.
Photo by Gene McAvoy via Twitter
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Structural and equipment damages will be among the many issues for Florida growers digging out from Hurricane Ian.
Photo by Gene McAvoy via Twitter
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Portions of Central Florida received in excess of 20 inches of rainfall, thanks to the storm. Some parts of region remain flooded weeks after the storm.

Photo courtesy of St. Johns River Water Management District

Updated figures for 2022-2023 all-orange production indicate a 29% decline from the October report. This puts the current forecast at 20 million boxes (7 million boxes of early, mid-season varieties plus 13 million boxes of Valencias). Adding insult to injury, the season’s initial forecast already was well down from last season’s output of 41 million boxes.

Forecasters are noting smaller fruit sizes on the trees and predicting droppage to be above the maximum at harvest.

When I spoke to Ray Royce, Executive Director of the Highlands County Citrus Growers Association, a week after Hurricane Ian struck, he said to expect fluctuations in future crop forecasts as after-effects play out. “What previous storms have taught us, these trees will shed more fruit and leaves in the coming weeks.”

Similar to oranges, grapefruit also took another squeezing. It fell 200,000 boxes from October’s report to an estimated 1.8 million boxes.

Shannon Shepp, Executive Director of the Florida Department of Citrus, says growers are focused on recovery and continue to invest in new tools to help rebuild.

“The December crop forecast reflects the very real challenges that Hurricane Ian, Hurricane Nicole, and the ongoing impacts of citrus greening have created. We remain hopeful and motivated to secure the future of our industry. Florida citrus growers are resilient. They have withstood centuries of extreme weather, and this hurricane season is no exception.”

Did You Know/Do You Remember?

During the 1997-1998 season, 244 million boxes of oranges (a record high) were harvested in Florida. During the 1996-1997 season, 55.8 million boxes of grapefruit came to fruition.

USDA is scheduled to update its citrus crop forecast on Jan. 12, 2023.

Paul Rusnak is the Senior Multimedia Specialist for Meister Media Worldwide's Specialty Crops Division, which consists of American Vegetable Grower, American Fruit Grower, and Greenhouse Grower, all Meister Media brands. He is based in Northeast Florida. See all author stories here.