Impressive Production Growth in 2025 California Almond Forecast

The 2025 California almond production forecast is 3 billion meat pounds, up 7% from May’s subjective forecast and 10% higher than last year’s crop of 2.73 billion meat pounds. The forecast from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service is based on 1.39 million bearing acres.

Production for the Nonpareil variety is forecast at 1.20 billion meat pounds, 9% above last year’s deliveries of 1.11 billion meat pounds. The Nonpareil variety represents 40% of California’s forecasted almond production.

The 2025 almond crop experienced variable weather during bloom, which began in early February and peaked in the middle of the month. Storms brought rain, wind, and hail, which hindered bee hours and blossom growth. Conditions improved in early March with warm temperatures accelerating the crop’s progress through the end of bloom. Mild temperatures and timely rain in spring supported nut growth and continued through early summer, lessening heat stress in orchards. Lower than normal pest and disease pressure have been reported.

Harvest is expected to begin on time.

The average nut set per tree is 4,364, an increase of 7% compared to 2024. The Nonpareil average nut set of 4,526 is 9% higher than last year. The average kernel weight for all varieties sampled was 1.60 grams, down 0.6% from the 2024 average weight. The Nonpareil average kernel weight was 1.60 grams, down 2% from the 2024 average weight. A total of 98.9% of all nuts sized were sound.

For more 2025 California almond production forecast details, visit nass.usda.gov.