Sweet Surprise Shows up in Latest Florida Orange Crop Estimate
The 2021-2022 Florida citrus season has been challenging — to say the least — for growers and industry stakeholders. Crop forecast numbers from USDA have continually reflected the struggles with HLB, fruit drop, and lingering effects from a freeze event in late January. Last month’s estimate sunk the current all-orange forecast to around World War II-era levels. The latest report, however, features something not seen in quite a while – an increase.
USDA forecasters’ updated estimate shows orange production up 5% from April, Valencia increasing 10%. That boosts the total all-orange estimate to now 40.2 million boxes (18.2 million boxes of non-Valencia + 22 million boxes of Valencia). Keeping things in perspective, the new figure would still be 24% less than last season’s final tally. According to the report, harvest is complete for non-Valencia varieties, and the Valencia crop is 88% complete.
“Given everything this industry has been through over the past several years, particularly with the weather, 40 million boxes of oranges is something to be proud of,” says Shannon Shepp, Executive Director of the Florida Department of Citrus. “We are nowhere near where we once were, but it is clear there is a vast number of dedicated people working together to figure out what recovery looks like. Florida Citrus remains a vital and significant player in the State’s economy and that won’t change any time soon.”
State Ag Commissioner Nikki Fried echoed a positive sentiment regarding the latest report. “This forecast is great news for Florida citrus growers,” she says. “Our producers have faced many challenges over the past few years, but this news is even more proof of their resiliency and strength in the face of adversity. My department and I will keep fighting for resources and funding for Florida’s citrus industry.”
So, where will the orange estimate finally settle? According to USDA, changes between the May Florida all-orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 2.26 million boxes.
The grapefruit estimate lowered 100,000 boxes to 3.4 million total. Harvest is essentially complete on both red and white varieties.
Only two more reports remain for the 2021-2022 citrus season. The next estimate is slated to be released on June 10.
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